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Handysize – Supramax – Ultramax Brief: Catching the Wind as the Tide Turns

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive

 &

TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

Momentum is stirring in the dry bulk market, with the larger geared segments leading a gentle but perceptible recovery.

Supramax and Ultramax owners are finding new traction in key Atlantic basins, while the Handysize sector steadies after recent headwinds. The tone may still be cautious, but confidence is quietly returning to the bridge.

South Atlantic – Supras and Ultras Take the Helm

Improved enquiry and firmer sentiment lift rates from Brazil to ECSA.

The Supramax and Ultramax market in the South Atlantic gained ground last week as fresh stems from East Coast South America and North Brazil supported activity. Grain and mineral exports are moving more steadily, tightening lists and boosting owners’ confidence.

Rates for both fronthaul and transatlantic voyages edged higher, with owners negotiating from a position of relative strength for the first time in weeks. While not a rally, the shift feels meaningful — the sense of inertia that clouded October is finally giving way to forward motion.

Handysize – A Gentle Shift Toward Balance

The Handysize market in the same region started on a softer note as prompt ships outnumbered available cargoes. But by midweek, a modest improvement in activity and a handful of December enquiries helped steady sentiment. Owners appear less defensive, and the basin looks better balanced going into next week.

US Gulf – Confidence Building Across the Board

Soybeans and petcoke cargoes drive a tightening tonnage list.

For Supramax and Ultramax vessels, the US Gulf remains one of the more dynamic regions. Stronger front-haul demand to the East, combined with steady transatlantic movements, has put a firm floor under rates.
Owners are regaining confidence, and sentiment suggests that support could carry into mid-November as the seasonal cargo flow intensifies.

Meanwhile, Handysize activity has been more measured. Supply and demand are broadly balanced, keeping rate fluctuations mild. While owners continue to feel some pressure from charterers, the floor appears firm — a constructive base for potential upside.

West Coast South America – Nearing a Floor

Soft fundamentals persist, but a bottom seems close.

The Supramax and Ultramax scene on the West Coast South America (WCSA) remained under pressure. Limited demand and plentiful open tonnage weighed on rates, especially for longer voyages to Asia. Owners are holding out for improvement, but for now, the tone remains subdued.

The Handysize market followed a similar pattern. Several charterers pushed rates lower, yet market participants increasingly agree that values are close to their short-term bottom. Fresh cargo programs for late November could bring some welcome stability.

Continent & Mediterranean – Flat but Functional

Balanced markets keep volatility at bay.

Across the Continent, the Supramax and Ultramax markets held steady. A few scrap cargoes lent minimal support, but overall, activity remained flat. With tonnage well balanced and little fresh enquiry, sentiment is cautiously steady rather than bullish.

In the Mediterranean, charterers still hold the upper hand, particularly in the East Med and Black Sea, where lacklustre demand has capped momentum. The West Med performed slightly better, helped by moderate grain movements and some cross-Med cargoes that prevented rates from sliding further.

For Handysize tonnage, the picture was equally calm. Modest intra-Med and West Med business kept ships moving, though the market still waits for a fresh trigger to drive direction.

Middle East Gulf & Indian Ocean – Steady as She Goes

Rates remain range-bound as balance holds between stems and supply.

The Supramax/Ultramax market in the Middle East Gulf and Indian Ocean held a steady course through the week. Short-haul fertiliser and urea liftings offered brief support early on, but most routes stayed within established ranges. Ballasters from India added some pressure, yet activity from South Africa kept things afloat.

The Handysize sector mirrored this balance — quietly stable, with regular employment in ECI coastal and Bangladesh runs. Period discussions surfaced, though operators remain cautious, wary of uncertain fundamentals heading into Q1.

Africa – Quiet Strength in a Crowded Basin

Consistent mineral flows sustain sentiment despite longer lists.

The South African market maintained a composed tone. For Supramax and Ultramax tonnage, mineral exports remain active, supporting daily earnings despite an increasing number of open ships. Ballasters from India have stretched the lists, but the basin remains healthy and well supplied with steady stems through late November.

Far East & Southeast Asia – Softer Seas, Watchful Eyes

Oversupply and weak Pacific demand keep rates under pressure.

In the Far East, Supramax and Ultramax owners faced another challenging week. North Pacific enquiry stayed limited, and the anticipated pick-up in demand failed to materialise. A wide bid–offer spread reflects continuing uncertainty.

In Southeast Asia, the coal trades also softened. Growing lists of prompt vessels have eroded owners’ leverage, forcing some to accept discounts just to keep vessels turning.

Handysize performance followed a similar course. Steel cargoes that previously paid premiums have thinned, and open tonnage continues to build. Period interest remains minimal as both sides hesitate to commit ahead of year-end. The market tone is weak, but most believe the downside is limited from here.

Market Outlook – Diverging Currents

Atlantic builds momentum, Pacific drifts sideways.

Looking ahead, the Atlantic appears poised to extend its modest recovery, led by improving sentiment in the US Gulf and South Atlantic. These regions are now the market’s stabilising anchors.

The Pacific, by contrast, may drift further unless new cargo programs emerge from NoPac or Australia. The Mediterranean and Continent are expected to remain quiet but balanced, while the Indian Ocean should continue trading within its current band.

Sentiment Snapshot

Final Word – Steering Through a Subtle Shift

Confidence is edging back into the dry bulk market.

The Supramax and Ultramax classes have emerged as the market’s bellwethers, leading a gradual but meaningful recovery in sentiment. Handysize tonnage, while less buoyant, is stabilising after a mild correction — a sign that equilibrium is returning.

The seas are not calm yet, but they are certainly less stormy. For shipowners, operators, and charterers with a clear strategy and adaptive mindset, this is the moment to prepare for the next fair wind.

Because when the tide turns — and it’s starting to — those already trimmed for the change will sail ahead.

Legal Disclaimer:

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.