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Charting the year end calm: A dive into the ultramax, supramax & handysize markets

By: Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

 Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

Pre-Holiday Reset, Cyclical Softness, and Early Q1 Reality Check

In the Atlantic Ultramax and Supramax arena, the week unfolded with a gentle downward drift. Owners, eager to secure cover before offices go dark, accepted lower levels, while charterers showed little urgency to push the market higher. In the South Atlantic, the easing continued, though the region's limited prompt supply prevented a more abrupt fall. A few fresh stems surfaced, but not enough to alter the balance. Eco Ultramax transatlantic runs held in the mid‑$20,000s, while fronthaul employment settled in the $15,000s plus a $500,000 GBB. The tone may be subdued, yet the fundamentals remain intact, and the basin could find itself briefly undersupplied once the new year begins.

The US Gulf experienced a flurry of late‑week fixing as both sides sought to tidy their books before the break. The increased activity, however, only confirmed the downward trajectory. Fronthaul values eased toward $26,000, while transatlantic rounds slipped to roughly $29,000. The market has clearly left Q4's momentum astern, with Q1 sentiment already embedded in negotiations. Further north, the Continent continued to feel the weight of growing tonnage lists. Scrap runs, once trading in the mid‑$20,000s, reset closer to $20,000 on Supramaxes, while transatlantic business settled around $15,000 and fronthaul drifted toward $23,000. Industrial activity will need to resume after the holidays before any meaningful recalibration can occur.

In the Mediterranean and Black Sea, the imbalance between supply and demand remained pronounced. Charterers held the helm with confidence, pushing offers toward their bids as rates continued to soften. Transatlantic trips were heard near $13,500, fronthaul around $18,500, and West Africa voyages close to $16,000. A clear floor has yet to form, and the region may require a fresh injection of demand before stabilising.

East of Suez, the Ultramax and Supramax markets reflected the same subdued rhythm. In the Middle East Gulf, levels held broadly steady but with a softer undertone as the holiday slowdown approaches. The only firm pocket remained the ECI–Bangladesh range, where Ultramaxes continued to achieve levels in the low‑$20,000s. South Africa, meanwhile, remained weighed down by a heavy tonnage list — more than eighteen ships on the coast plus several ballasters — against limited cargo flow. Port Elizabeth–China offers eased to $19,000 plus $190,000 BB, while the S15 index slipped to 15,992. Recent fixtures included Supras in the high‑$17,000s plus $170,000 BB and Ultramaxes around $20,000 plus $200,000 BB. January manganese may offer a glimmer of support, but weak coal exports continue to cap sentiment.

The Far East closed the week with little momentum. In the North, Ultramaxes in Korea earned around $15,000 per day for NOPAC rounds, while backhaul trades into the Continent–Mediterranean slipped below $14,000. In the South, Indo–India coal runs paid roughly $17,000 per day, with regional employment in the mid‑$15,000s. Owners are increasingly considering ballasting south, a move that may tighten northern supply in early January. West Coast South America continued to soften as well, with concentrate volumes thin for early January and salt demand into the US East Coast emerging as the only potential stabiliser — dependent, as ever, on winter weather patterns.

The Handysize market mirrored the broader trend, easing into the holidays with a controlled descent rather than a collapse. In the South Atlantic, the shift from early‑month strength to a more balanced, softer tone was unmistakable. Fixtures included a 43,000‑dwt unit at $19,500 APS Santos for a Continent–Gibraltar run, a 33,000‑dwt vessel at $19,000 DOP Paranagua to the Continent, and another 33,000‑dwt ship at $23,000 APS Recalada for grains to New Zealand. Activity is unlikely to vanish entirely next week, but participation will thin as players step back for the holidays.

The US Gulf remained under pressure, with oversupply and thinning enquiry forcing owners to chase the market. A 37,000‑dwt vessel fixed at $21,000 APS Southwest Pass for grains to Algeria, while a 35,000‑dwt ship achieved $17,000 APS Barranquilla for coal to Brazil. The Continent, too, stayed subdued, with December cargoes largely covered and little fresh enquiry emerging. Fixtures included a 35,000‑dwt unit at $15,500 DOP Bristol and a 37,000‑dwt vessel at $15,000 APS ARAG for scrap to the East Mediterranean. In the Med and Black Sea, pressure continued to build as fresh enquiry failed to keep pace with rising tonnage. A 35,000‑dwt ship fixed at $13,000 APS C/V/B for grains to Algeria, while a 36,000‑dwt vessel secured $12,000 APS Constanta for soybeans to the Continent.

East of Suez, the Handysize market remained over‑tonnaged and under‑powered. In the Middle East Gulf and Indian Ocean, levels stayed broadly flat but edged softer, with demand limited and owners preferring longer voyages to avoid holiday‑period openings. In the Far East, rates eased again as the weight of tonnage overshadowed limited enquiry. Backhaul remained the strongest direction, with 40,000‑dwt units fixing around $13,000 per day and 38,000‑dwt steel loaders near $12,000. Southbound trips for 38,000‑dwt non‑steel loaders traded between $9,000 and $10,000, while quick regional trips saw 28,000‑dwt vessels at $9,000–9,500, 32,000‑dwt ships at $9,000–10,000, and 38,000‑dwt units at $10,500–11,500. PG–WCI trades held around $13,000–14,000, though this premium reflects broader market weakness rather than genuine strength. Owners seeking longer cover before year‑end intensified competition on backhaul, aiming for $12,000–13,000 while charterers countered at $11,000–12,000. Southeast Asia and Australia found a tentative floor, with 28,000‑dwt ships earning $7,750–9,000, 32,000‑dwt units achieving $8,000–10,000, and 38,000‑dwt vessels securing $11,500–12,500. Australian rounds for 40,000‑dwt ships open Indonesia fixed in the high‑$13,000s, while 30,000‑dwt units earned around $9,000 for South China redelivery. West Coast South America printed a few above‑market fixtures due to late‑running ships, but not enough to shift sentiment, and further softening is expected into early January.

As the industry heads into the final week of the year, the outlook remains steady but subdued. The Ultramax and Supramax markets are likely to remain flat to softer as holiday staffing thins and enquiry stays muted. The Handysize sector in the Atlantic should continue to feel pressure, while East of Suez markets remain oversupplied. South Africa and West Coast South America show no immediate catalysts for recovery, and the Far East is expected to remain dominated by oversupply until early January.

Sentiment across the basins reflects this seasonal hibernation. The Atlantic feels defensive, awaiting a January reset. The Pacific remains subdued with no firm floor, while the Indian Ocean sits flat with a downward bias. Overall, the market is not signalling structural decline — merely the quiet, predictable decrescendo that accompanies the final days of the year.Participants are managing exposure, not abandoning conviction.

As the sector prepares to turn the page, the deeper currents are already shifting. Those who position early, with clarity and a strategist's eye, will be best placed to capture the first meaningful opportunities of 2026.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.