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“Capes Hoist the Sails — The Dry Bulk Market Catches the Wind Again”

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

After several weeks of sluggish waters, the dry bulk market finally caught a fair wind last week — and it was the mighty Capes that led the way. A sharp uptick in Capesize earnings breathed new life into the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), signaling that the long spell of inertia may be giving way to renewed momentum.

While the Capes took the helm, the other vessel classes — Kamsarmax, Ultramax, and Handysize — held relatively steady, maintaining their course in calmer seas.

Setting Sail: The Baltic Dry Index on the Rise

By Friday, November 7, the Baltic Dry Index had climbed by 138 points, closing at 2,104 points. The surge came primarily on the strength of Capesize tonnage, underscoring once again how this heavyweight segment dictates the rhythm of the dry cargo market.

Capesize: The Giants Take Command

The Capesize market began the week quietly in the Pacific, but midweek brought a surge in activity as miners ramped up demand. The flagship Australia–China iron ore route (C5) closed at $10.37 per ton, with freight levels pushing above the $1/ton threshold.

In the Atlantic, the tone was even more buoyant. Fresh cargoes surfaced in the latter half of the week across both hemispheres, soaking up available tonnage. By Friday, the Brazil–China route (C3) stood at $23.31 per ton, while transatlantic round voyages (C8) reached $29,470 per day, and Europe–Asia runs (C9) were quoted at $48,050 per day.

Such robust numbers reaffirm the Capesize segment’s pivotal role in the BDI’s oscillations. When these leviathans move, the entire index follows. Beyond the raw data, however, lies a subtler current — one of renewed confidence. The Capes’ rally has rekindled strategic discussions among owners and charterers alike, who are now charting new routes for sustainable growth and profitable collaboration.

Kamsarmax: Steady as She Goes

In the Atlantic, Kamsarmax rates faced mild headwinds late in the week, particularly in northern routes where demand softened. Yet, further south, sentiment improved thanks to a solid flow of cargoes from East Coast South America (ECSA) bound for Asia for early December loadings.

Typical earnings included $18,000–$20,000 per day for ECSA–Far East voyages (delivery Asia), $22,500–$24,500 per day for Europe–Asia runs, and $14,000–$16,000 per day for transatlantic rounds (delivery Gibraltar).

In the Pacific, the market held firm, buoyed by strong coal liftings from Australia and Indonesia. Round trips within Southeast Asia and the Far East paid $16,000–$18,000 per day on delivery in the Far East.

The Kamsarmax market thus remains on an even keel — steady, watchful, and poised for the next cargo wave.

Supramax & Ultramax: Drifting in Midwaters

The Ultramax and Supramax sectors experienced a more subdued voyage. In Southeast Asia, an influx of open tonnage met weaker demand from Australia, pressing freight rates slightly lower. UMX round trips in the region were assessed at $14,500–$16,000 per day.

Further north, the North Pacific (NOPAC) market remained under pressure due to limited backhaul cargoes. Voyages to India fixed around $14,000–$15,500 per day, while Atlantic returns stood at $13,000–$14,500 per day.

In the Middle East Gulf and West Coast India, activity was steady but unremarkable — plenty of cargoes, but rates barely reflected the volume. UMX vessels trading Arabian Gulf–Far East earned $12,500–$14,000 per day, short regional trips AG–WCI fetched $14,000–$15,500 per day, and Atlantic-bound voyages paid $11,500–$13,000 per day.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Gulf began the week under full sail following positive trade sentiment between China and the U.S. However, many charterers ultimately opted for larger tonnage, tempering the gains. UMX transatlantic trips fetched $27,000–$28,500 per day, while Far East-bound business stood at $25,500–$27,000 per day.

From the ECSA, activity revived midweek, especially for northbound and eastbound routes. Voyages to Asia achieved $27,500–$29,000 per day, while trips to the Mediterranean and Europe were fixed around $25,500–$27,000 per day.

In the Mediterranean and Continent, the tone softened. Western Med routes saw fewer opportunities, and owners found limited alternatives. A typical UMX voyage from the Med to Asia was fixed at $18,000–$19,500 per day, transatlantic runs at $11,000–$12,500 per day, and intra-Med employment around $12,500–$14,000 per day, excluding conflict zones.

Handysize: Calm Waters for the Smaller Ships

The Handysize segment remained relatively tranquil. In Europe, a balanced market kept rates in check. Larger Handies earned $16,000–$17,500 per day on round voyages, $19,000–$20,500 per day for scrap cargoes to the Mediterranean, and $12,500–$14,000 per day for transatlantic trips.

In the U.S. Gulf, the market eased slightly despite decent volume. Rates stood at $18,000–$19,500 per day for Atlantic runs and $18,500–$20,000 per day for Asia-bound voyages. From ECSA, Handies fetched $16,000–$17,500 per day to Europe/Mediterranean and $16,500–$18,000 per day to Asia.

In the Far East, early optimism faded as tonnage lists swelled. Handies trading in the NOPAC and Southeast Asia–Far East loops fixed at $11,500–$12,000 per day, while Southeast Asia–China trips were at $13,000–$14,500 per day. From West India to China, returns were a modest $7,500–$9,000 per day.

Charting the Horizon: What the Numbers Tell Us

The rise in Capesize earnings is no mere statistical anomaly — it signals a structural tightening. Major bulk cargoes such as iron ore and coal are stirring anew, and available tonnage is thinning. The market balance is tilting subtly but decisively in favor of owners.

For operators, charterers, and investors navigating the dry bulk seascape, this shift represents more than a short-term uptick. It’s a strategic inflection point — a moment to re-evaluate positioning, redeploy assets, and realign alliances.

Plotting the Next Voyage

The dry bulk market is no longer adrift. The compass has shifted, the charts are changing, and opportunities are emerging for those prepared to seize them.

The market’s sails are full once again. The only question that remains is:
Will your company be steering with the wind — or trailing in its wake?

Legal Disclaimer:

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.