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Washington and Beijing have hit the pause button

Washington and Beijing have hit the pause button. After six bruising months of tariff trench warfare, Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year truce that suspends China's rare-earth export curbs, cuts the U.S. "fentanyl tariff" from 20% to 10%, and freezes all port fees on each other's shipping and shipbuilding industries. It's a tactical de-escalation with few written details but strong symbolic weight — a signal that both sides want to steady supply chains and ease inflationary pressure. For global trade, the message is simple: risk premia down a notch, visibility up a notch.

Agriculture stole the spotlight. The two leaders confirmed China's return to the U.S. soybean market, with initial purchases already under negotiation and a broader framework reportedly aiming for tens of millions of tonnes over the coming year. Shipments are expected to start immediately, restoring a flow that had been largely frozen since spring. For American farmers, it's a badly needed reprieve; for China, a pragmatic move to secure feedstock ahead of winter and reduce dependence on South America. Prices in Chicago's market reacted cautiously — optimism mixed with skepticism — but the physical market has already begun to stir, with new cargoes quietly booked from the Gulf and Pacific Northwest.

For shipping, this truce could not be timelier. The resumption of long-haul soybean trades from the U.S. to China instantly revives a key tonne-mile engine for Panamax bulkers. The absence of this route in recent months had erased close to 200 voyages and sharply thinned Q4 employment. With Brazilian and Argentine harvests not expected to reach Chinese ports before February, the U.S. window now opens wide for the next three months. Even if volumes recover to only two-thirds of a normal year, the impact on utilization and sentiment will be tangible. Atlantic-Pacific repositioning costs are already tightening lists in the Gulf, and fresh demand for prompt loadings is slowly creeping into FFA pricing for early 2026.

Still, a few caveats keep the euphoria in check. China's diversification of soybean origins has deepened during the standoff, and Brazil's logistical efficiency continues to improve — meaning U.S. share gains may be temporary. Moreover, the truce is explicitly time-limited and subject to annual review; the return of tariffs or port fees remains a risk if talks stall. Yet even a short-term normalization stabilizes trade flows, smooths freight expectations, and injects oxygen into a bulk market that had started to lose momentum after a strong summer.

Beyond dry bulk, the suspension of port fees removes a lingering cost irritant for liner and tanker operators, while the tariff reduction marginally improves voyage economics across cargo types. Chips and advanced technology remain outside the agreement, but the overall tone marks the calmest phase in U.S.–China relations since early 2024. For now, markets trade cargoes rather than headlines again — and in shipping, that shift alone is enough to change the weather.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

Capesize activity included the Scrubber fitted "Seaunity" - 181K/2010 Koyo which was sold for USD 31 mills to undisclosed buyers. In the Kamsarmax sector, the "Theresa Hebei" - 82K/2013 Jiangsu Eastern was sold for mid USD 15 mills, while the scrubber fitted Panamax "Majorca" - 74K/2005 Hudong Zhonghua changed hands for USD 7.5 mills. On the Ultramax segment, the modern "CMB Bruegel" - 64K/2021 Shin Kasado was sold for USD 33 mills to clients of Meghna Shipping, while the "Dionisis" - 63K/2019 Imabari was sold to Indian interests for low USD 31 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Supramax "KN Future" - 58K/2013 Tsuneishi Cebu was sold to Far Eastern buyers for USD 18.75 mills, the "Karadeniz S" - 57K/2012 STX was sold to Middle Eastern buyers for USD 14.25 mills, the "APJ Shirin" - 57K/2012 Cosco Guangdong achieved USD 13.45 mills, and the "Ince Ege" - 57K/2010 STX Dalian was sold for high USD 12 mills. The "Heroic Striker" - 57K/2010 Jinling went to Chinese buyers for USD 11.75 mills and the "Evriali" - 54K/2007 Iwagi was sold for USD 10.3 mills to undisclosed interests. On the Handysize sector, the "African Osprey" - 35K/2012 Chengxi was sold to Greek buyers for high USD 11 mills, and the "TBC Prime" - 39K/2011 Minaminippon was also sold to Greek buyers for USD 14.3 mills. Lastly, the "Golden Maple" - 33K/2009 Zhejiang Hongxin was sold for USD 7.35 mills.

Tanker:

This week's tanker activity was led by the sale of the "Saiq" - 300K/2011 Universal, which was sold for USD 57 mills basis TC attached at USD 41,000/day until April 2026. The slightly older "Nave Quasar" - 297K/2010 Dalian changed hands for USD 52.5 mills. On the MR2 front, the "Yosemite Trader" - 48K/2011 Iwagi was sold to Vietnamese buyers for USD 21 mills, while the "STI Brixton" - 39K/2014 HMD achieved USD 30 mills. In the small tanker segment, the "Ginostra M" - 19K/2024 Fujian (Ice Class 1B) changed hands for USD 27 mills. Finally, the stainless-steel IMO II twins "Kobe Pioneer" - 3.5K/2016 Dae Sun and "Yokohama Pioneer" - 3.5K/2016 Dae Sun were reported sold for USD 13.7 mills each.

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