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“Riding the Rising Tide: Capes Lead the Surge in Dry Bulk Markets”

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis Strategic Advisor for Maritime Investments & Chartering Commercial Director at TMC Shipping

and By Dr. Fotios–Evangelos Karlis Maritime Executive & Consultant

As the Baltic Dry Index pushed upward by 133 points to close at 2,069 on Friday 17 October, the dry bulk market signaled a subtle but meaningful shift in prevailing winds. Notably, the Capesize fleet caught the eye with a double‑digit rally of 11.5%, while Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and Handies crept ahead by +3.59 %, +1.57 % and +1.4 % respectively. The message was clear: owners and charterers alike were trimming sails for more bullish seas.

Across the Asia–Pacific theatre, volatility marked the early course. On the critical Australia → China lane (C5), spreads of up to $2/ton emerged, evidence of a jittery market. Yet by week’s end, operators had shouted orders to their fleets and plugged the gaps left by absent miners, steering the C5 rate to $10.49/ton. It was a reminder that where supply weakens, nimble minds can reassert control.

Out west, in the Atlantic basin, activity off West Africa and southern Brazil remained steady but unspectacular, while demand across the northern Atlantic held the tiller steady—voyages both to Asia and to the far side of the ocean proving serviceable. The C3 Brazil → China route rose to $24.52/ton. The Europe → Asia corridor (C9) ended at $44,060/day, and cyclical transatlantic runs (C8) fetched $22,840/day.

Turning to Kamsarmaxes, the northern Atlantic showed signs of doldrums—Chinese import tariffs on U.S. routes cast shadows over activity. Conversely, in the south the demand–capacity balance favored upward drift: voyages from ECSA to the Far East achieved $15,000–17,000/day; Europe → Asia business earned $23,500–25,500/day; and cyclical transatlantic runs (delivery Gibraltar) landed at $16,500–18,500. In Asia, the northern sector absorbed the shock of tariff talk but rebounded as clarity returned. Tight fleet lists pushed circular Southeast Asia → Far East trips into the $16,000–18,000/day band.

Ultramax / Supramax tonnage sailed a more measured ascent. In Southeast Asia, steady cargo flows from Indonesia and Australia sustained rates of $14,500–16,000/day. In the NOPAC region, circular Pacific voyages hovered at $14,000–15,500/day; routes toward India pushed into $15,500–17,000/day; and backhaul runs to the Atlantic landed between $13,500–15,000/day.

Meanwhile, in the Arabian Gulf and Western India, the picture was split. Larger UMX tonnage held level with the prior week; smaller units wrestled with oversupply. AG→WCI to the Far East saw $12,500–14,000/day; shorter AG–WCI routes $14,000–15,500/day; Atlantic‑bound voyages lagged at $10,000–11,500/day.

The Atlantic, especially the U.S. Gulf, opened the week with fresh cargoes and tight tonnage for late‑October business. Most corridors held steady, though the U.S. East Coast flagged. UMX rates topping out at $28,500–30,000/day toward Asia and $31,500–33,000/day for transatlantic runs reflect robust underlying strength. In ECSA, stability held with subtle tailwinds; the north, despite a vibrant start, softened later in the week. Southeast Asia / China voyages fetched $27,500–29,000/day, with transatlantic or Mediterranean/European runs in a similar bracket.

Europe’s scene dimmed somewhat: a limited open tonnage pool, thin demand and few fresh fixtures encouraged many owners to eye Atlantic routes instead. UMX daily rates on regional circular business ranged $21,000–22,500; SCRAP runs into the Mediterranean hit $28,500–30,000; and Asia voyages fetched $24,500–26,000. The Mediterranean held broadly steady, though the western reaches rode more favorable currents; the eastern basin offered fewer prospects, prompting some owners to shift westward. A representative UMX from the Mediterranean to Asia (via Çanakkale) commanded $24,000–25,500/day, to the Atlantic $14,000–15,500/day, and within the sea itself $16,500–18,000/day (outside conflict zones).

Handysize tonnage, meanwhile, saw a modest rebound. European starts were quiet, but fresh grain cargoes entering midweek flipped sentiment. Larger Handies secured $19,500–21,000/day for circular trades; SCRAP missions to the Mediterranean commanded $23,500–25,000/day; and transatlantic voyages fetched $14,500–16,000/day. In the Mediterranean, the west gained momentum buoyed by northern Europe flows, while the east held ground. For 36,000 DWT+ vessels: intra‑Mediterranean runs priced at $13,000–14,500/day (delivery Çanakkale), Europe voyages $13,500–15,000/day, Atlantic legs $11,000–12,500/day, and Asia allocations $15,000–16,500/day.

On the Asian frontier, the north regained energy as Chinese and Korean markets resumed normal rhythm post‑holiday. The south saw stronger throughput from Indonesia later in the week, nudging rates upward. Westward, the Arabian Gulf / India corridor remained under pressure from a glut of available vessels; only Atlantic‑bound runs preserved rates above $10,000/day. Larger vessels trading between Asia and NOPAC commanded $10,500–12,000/day, Southeast Asia → China fetched $13,500–15,000/day, but Western India → China routes slipped to $7,500–9,000/day.

As the tides settle on this week’s ledger, one discerns a cautiously constructive narrative. Capesize tonnage clearly stole the spotlight like a lighthouse against fog, while smaller classes adapted their trim to local currents and market eddies. Asia’s routes remain energetic, the Atlantic still issues opportunities—though not wholly uniform in nature. The compass now turns toward Chinese tariff developments, miner movements, and seasonal swings in agricultural demand.

Provided the barometer stays steady and the winds gentle, dry bulk markets may continue their ascent into late October. Charterers hold the helm, owners adjust sails — and the voyage carries on with eyes sharp and courses kept deft.

Stay with us for next dispatch, where fresh data will chart the next leg of this oceanic journey.

Disclaimer: This report is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market views and estimates are based on available data and are subject to change without notice.