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China's rush to lock in Africa's battery metals is not just an EV or geopolitics story

China's rush to lock in Africa's battery metals is not just an EV or geopolitics story – it will possibly quietly reshape dry bulk trade. Africa holds roughly 30% of global mineral resources and punches far above its weight in the battery suite. The Democratic Republic of Congo already supplies more than 70% of mined cobalt & holds about half of global reserves. South Africa, Gabon and Ghana account for over 60% of manganese output. Zimbabwe, DRC and Mali are emerging lithium producers, & Mozambique and Madagascar are fast-growing sources of natural graphite.

China has moved early and decisively to turn this geology into captive supply. Around 22% of its investments in Africa is now tied to mining and associated infrastructure, with railways, roads and ports linking the Copperbelt, the Kalahari manganese field or Zimbabwe's lithium belt directly to Chinese smelters and gigafactories. In 2024 China sourced more than 80% of its cobalt and manganese ore imports from Africa, underlining how central this corridor has become to Beijing's energy-transition strategy. On the water, this is already visible in niche but fast-growing bulk trades. Guinea's bauxite exports reached almost 100m tonnes in the first half of 2025, up 36% year-on-year, with Chinese-controlled miners responsible for over 60% of volumes. Zimbabwe exported about 1m tonnes of spodumene concentrate between January and September 2025, roughly 27–30% higher than a year earlier despite weaker lithium prices, again driven largely by Chinese offtake. Mozambique and Madagascar together already produce around 150,000 tonnes per annum of natural graphite, while new Chinese-backed projects could add roughly 260,000 tpa of concentrate capacity – all cargo that naturally falls into Handy to Panamax dry bulk space.

Set against a global dry bulk market that carried more than 5.6bn tonnes in 2024, these volumes are still small, but they matter for two reasons: growth and distance. Traditional pillars such as coal and iron ore are mature and increasingly constrained by decarbonisation politics, whereas lithium, cobalt, manganese and graphite sit at the heart of the energy transition. Voyages from Nacala, Beira, Matadi or Lobito to North China are inherently long-haul; any future diversification toward European or US gigafactories would only extend tonne-miles further. Policy is reinforcing the trend. Zimbabwe's ban on unprocessed lithium exports has forced Chinese investors to finance concentrators and, in some cases, chemical plants at mine sites, turning opportunistic shipments into steady industrial cargo flows – exactly the kind of pattern that underpins period employment for geared bulkers. Guinea is pushing miners toward local alumina, while South Africa is encouraging more manganese alloy production; both moves support additional coastal and intra-African bulk legs alongside long-haul exports. Meanwhile, S&P Global expects sizeable structural deficits in lithium and copper by 2035 even after new projects, while China has started to restrict exports of certain processed materials such as graphite. That combination almost guarantees more African mining investment and invites Western and Japanese buyers to compete for offtake that until now flowed almost exclusively to China. If contracts begin splitting between east and west, routing becomes less efficient and tonne-miles rise.

For dry bulk owners, Africa's battery-metal build-out will not replace iron ore or coal, but it can provide a structurally growing, "green-aligned" layer of demand concentrated in Handy/Supra and smaller Panamax tonnage. In a market where traditional cargoes look cyclical and politically exposed, these new ore corridors may become one of the more resilient demand stories of the 2030s.

Dry S&P Activity:

Activity in the bulk sector remained firm this week, with transactions recorded across most size segments.

In the Capesize segment, the "Fortune Violet" - 181K/2012 Imabari was sold for USD 34 mills, basis delivery between February and August 2026.

Moving to smaller sizes, the "NBA Rembrandt" - 107K/2012 Oshima changed hands for USD 18.7 mills, with surveys due in 2030/2028, while the kamsarmax "Xin Tang Shan Hai 1" - 81K/2013 COSCO Dalian was sold via auction for USD 15.36 mills, basis DD passed.

Among the Panamax tonnage, the Japanese-built "GNS Harmony" - 77K/2001 Sasebo was committed at USD 6.75 mills, with SS/DD due in April 2026, and the modern Chinese Ultramax 2021-built "Great Voyage" - 61K/DACKS achieved USD 30.5 mills via auction.
Additionally, the Ultramax "DSI Drammen" - 63K/2016 Imabari yard was sold for USD 26.4 mills.

On the Supramax segment, the "Vega Stetind" - 55K/2008 Oshima was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 11 mills, with surveys due in December 2025. The "Intrepid" - 52K/2005 Tsuneishi Cebu fetched high USD 9 mills, with SS/DD due in November 2025.

Handysizes' activity included the "Saturnia" - 38K/2015 JNS, acquired by Pioneer Marine for USD 18.5 mills, while the "Federal Yellowstone" - 37K/2013 Yangfan was sold at low USD 14 mills. The Japanese-built "Trawind Dolphin" - 33K/2012 Shin Kurushima (OHBS) changed hands for USD 13.8 mills. In addition, the "Yangtze Grace" - 32K/2012 JNS was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 9.8 mills, while the slightly older "Yangtze Ambition" - 32K/2011 JNS achieved USD 9 mills.

Tanker S&P Activity:

Tanker activity was notably strong this week with 9 vessels sold. Starting with the VLCC sector, the scrubber fitted "Oceanic Fortune" – 320K/2010 HHI was sold to Chinese buyers for USD 57 mills. In the Suezmax segment, the "Sonangol Namibe" – 158K/2007 Daewoo was sold to Greek buyers for USD 34 mills. Turning to the MR sector, two 2013-built GSI sisters, the "Hafnia Libra" – 52K and "Hafnia Phoenix" – 49K, were sold for USD 23 mills each, to undisclosed buyers. Furthermore, the "PS Dream" – 51K/2006 STX and "PS Queen" – 51K/2006 STX were sold enbloc for USD 28 mills each. Also in the MR range, the Japanese-built "Kyra" – 47K/2006 Iwagi was reported sold for USD 11.35 mills. Finally, in the small tanker segment, the "MTM North Sound" – 19K/2006 Fukuoka achieved USD 15 mills, noting the vessel is Stainless Steel.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.