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Steady Seas, Shifting Tides: Handy & Ultramax Markets Chart a Cautious Course

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

In a week where the global dry market neither surged ahead nor slipped astern, both the Handy and Ultramax sectors found themselves navigating a course of quiet stability. What emerged instead was a market defined not by sweeping swells, but by micro-currents — subtle, region-by-region shifts that rewarded those with a strategic mariner's eye. Below, we chart the waters as they truly are: steady in some basins, shallow in others, yet always rich with opportunity for those who know how to read the sea.

Handysize Market: A Study in Poise and Patience

US Gulf / US East Coast: A Calm but Confident Drift

The USG/USEC carried a firm undertone this week — not roaring, but resolute. A disciplined tonnage list kept owners from being pushed off course, and a mid-week burst of fixtures helped lift spirits after a slow start. Longer-haul runs held their value, buoyed by owners unwilling to yield ground.

Outlook: Expect more of the same measured steadiness. If enquiry remains consistent, the region may enjoy a gentle lift as November gives way to December.

ECSA: Tight Tonnage Keeps the Wind in Owners' Sails

In East Coast South America, tight early-December positions acted as a natural breakwater, especially with limited West Africa competition. Northern loading zones softened slightly, but the southern arc stayed robust. The usual early-month WCSA stems were noticeably absent, though not yet a cause for alarm.

Outlook: Still firm. If WCSA enquiry kicks in and ballast tonnage stays clear, owners could defend — even enhance — current earnings as December opens.

WCSA: Feeling the Weight of Tonnage

West Coast South America eased as demand thinned and open ships became increasingly visible. Some owners preferred to hold course rather than fix at softer levels, but the central corridor's tonnage build-up kept sentiment defensive.

Outlook: The market appears to be approaching a short-term floor. Stabilisation may emerge as late-November stems clarify.

Northern Europe: Steady but Not Stirring

Across the Continent, trading moved at a steady rhythm. Cargo flow remained respectable, but incremental increases in open tonnage kept optimism from spilling over. Mineral and parcel trades helped support the region, though the tone remained more pragmatic than bullish.

Outlook: Another balanced week ahead. A spike in tonnage could pressure owners slightly, but stability remains the base case.

Mediterranean: A Flat, Slightly Soft Sea State

A rising number of open ships and low fresh enquiry weighed on the Med, particularly east of Malta. Though Black Sea grain flows offered some ballast, they weren't enough to reverse the drift.

Outlook: A flat-to-soft bias persists unless fresh demand materialises. Owners will be running the calculus between staying put or repositioning.

MEG/India: Slow Waters, Sparse Breeze

A long list of ships and restricted cargo availability kept rates subdued. Only selective backhaul and India–Bangladesh stems showed any spark. Most operators accepted that momentum would come only in small, incremental waves.

Outlook: Expect another static, slow-moving week unless a catalyst unexpectedly surfaces.

Southeast Asia / Far East: Soft Tones Under Heavy Skies

Weather delays and a build-up of prompt ships tilted the region toward charterers. While steel parcels to the west offered marginal relief, tonnage still outpaced demand across several pockets.

Outlook: A cautious, slightly soft mode continues. A sustained tightening will require either fewer prompt openings or improved NoPac/South China activity.

Ultramax Market: Holding the Line, Watching the Horizon

US Gulf / US East Coast: A Market Split in Two

The week began with solid enquiry but quickly shifted as more ships entered the frame. Ballasters from both coasts diluted the balance, though prompt vessels still held some negotiating leverage. Forward cargoes traded at softer ideas.

Outlook: Prompt remains firm; December windows softer — a bifurcated market likely to persist.

WCSA: Firm on Front-Haul, But Shadows Form

Steady salt and mineral demand kept rates supported on front-haul routes. But the number of vessels lining up for early-to-mid December is hard to ignore, and owners are already trimming expectations.

Outlook: Holding for now, but vulnerable. NoPac demand will be the linchpin for any bounce.

ECSA: Cooling from Hot to Warm

After exceptional highs, ECSA eased modestly. The southern range remained better supported thanks to a tighter position list, while northern Brazil softened more visibly.

Outlook: Stable but subdued. A sideways drift is likely until seasonal grains give the region fresh propulsion.

Northern Europe: Solid but Level

Scrap and Baltic-linked trades absorbed early tonnage quickly, but as more ships surfaced later in the week, gains tapered. Still, sentiment stayed constructive.

Outlook: Firm but controlled. No major shifts expected unless a new tranche of forward stems materialises.

Mediterranean: West Stronger Than East

Western Med support came from limited prompt tonnage and consistent industrial flows. The east remained thinner on enquiry, though Black Sea front-haul held steady without swinging dramatically.

Outlook: Overall stable — western strength offsets eastern softness.

South Africa: Beginning to Cool After a Strong Run

The region kept a firm footing for most of the week, though early signs of softening appeared as subcontinent ballasters lengthened lists. Still, India- and Far East-bound business offered support.

Outlook: Moderately firm but with a slight softer drift unless new front-haul volumes emerge.

MEG/India: A Delicate Equilibrium

Fertiliser runs early in the week supported owners, but a lengthening tonnage list soon tempered expectations. West Coast India stayed stable, though increased ballasting toward South Africa added outside pressure.

Outlook: A stable yet cautious setting. Rising period interest may lend a stabilising floor.

SE Asia / Far East: Sideways — with an Eye on Period Cover

The basin witnessed slow enquiry and careful moves from both charterers and owners. Northern routes were held up by NoPac and backhaul demand, while southern lanes depended on Australian flow. Owners increasingly eyed short periods as a hedge against uncertainty.

Outlook: Broad stability, with short-period deals anchoring sentiment.

Forward Curves & FFA Bearings

Capesize

A week of sharp swings: early strength, mid-week selloff, late recovery. Traders remain uncertain whether the physical market has fully topped, and sellers are testing conviction on the back end of the curve.

Panamax

After a shaky start, buying momentum lifted the curve decisively. Sentiment heading into next week is firmer, supported by a constructive index and increased forward appetite.

Supramax

The curve drifted early on before recovering. Physical indications remain key, though late-week buying suggests the foundation is slowly improving.

Short-Term Forecast (1 Week)

Handysize: Steady Atlantic; mild firmness in the south; Pacific remains cautious.

Ultramax: Stable overall; strength in western Med and selective Atlantic lanes; ECSA normalising after recent highs.

Tonnage: Tight in the West, heavy in the East; weather delays may start to rebalance lists.

Drivers: Seasonal grains, Asian weather systems, Baltic scrap, and West Africa patterns.

Market Mood: Navigating by Micro-Currents

Not bullish, not bearish — simply deliberate.
Owners show confidence in Atlantic pockets but stay defensive in the East, while charterers remain patient, knowing prompt ships can still command leverage. It is a market where discipline — not bravado — pays off.

Closing Note: Strategy Over Spectacle

As we sail deeper into Q4, the market rewards mariners who read the subtle divergences basin by basin. Those who can interpret these micro-dynamics, rather than rely on broad narratives, will be best positioned to chart profitable courses through December.

For companies looking to refine their positioning, optimise their fleet strategy or decode shifting cargo patterns, now is the moment to collaborate with seasoned navigators who understand not only the charts — but the sea itself.

Disclaimer

This report reflects current market observations, Baltic FFA assessments, and expert interpretation of shipping dynamics. Forecasts are indicative and based on prevailing conditions; market developments can change rapidly. Readers should consider this as professional insight rather than definitive advice. This report is intended solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, commercial recommendation, or solicitation. The views expressed are based on data and market observations considered reliable at the time of writing, but no warranty is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Any decisions based on this content are at the sole discretion and risk of the reader.