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Russian seaborne crude exports in August reached

Russian seaborne crude exports in August reached 3.40 million b/d, inching higher from July's 3.35 million b/d but remaining below the 3.5–3.6 million b/d levels seen between March and May. The marginal month-on-month rise masks important shifts in trade flows: shipments to India plunged by 21% to 1.30 million b/d, their lowest since January, while China's intake rose 12% to 1.11 million b/d, a fresh high for the year. The dynamic between India and China is once again at the heart of Russia's seaborne trade patterns, with the two Asian giants absorbing more than 70% of total flows. The monthly table underscores the structural changes underway. Indian imports peaked at 1.76 million b/d in March before gradually retreating, with August volumes falling nearly 0.5 million b/d from that high. Chinese imports, by contrast, have remained relatively steady throughout 2025, fluctuating around the 1.0 million b/d mark, before accelerating in August. Elsewhere, Europe's imports, though still marginal, surged to 0.35 million b/d in August from negligible levels earlier this year, highlighting persistent leakage despite EU restrictions. Africa also re-emerged as a modest outlet at 0.20 million b/d. These shifts illustrate Russia's flexibility in redirecting barrels in response to sanctions, discounts, and shifting arbitrage opportunities. India's sharp pullback coincided with Washington's Aug. 27 announcement of 25% "secondary tariffs" on Indian imports of Russian crude. Discounts on Urals widened further at the start of September to more than $11.50/b versus dated Brent, suggesting that Russia may be forced to concede even deeper price cuts to maintain flows. For India, the choice is politically fraught: discounted barrels help its refiners, yet its exports to the United States are far more valuable than the savings on cheap crude. This delicate balance could see Indian refiners hedge their exposure, diversifying toward Middle Eastern or West African grades. For shipowners, the picture is mixed. A reduced Indian appetite may shorten ton-mile demand, as flows from Baltic or Black Sea ports to India are among the longest voyages in Russia's crude trade. Conversely, incremental barrels to China often move via the Pacific, which involves shorter distances. However, the uptick in European and African flows—albeit from a low base—adds fresh tonne-mile opportunities. Every rerouting away from India toward smaller, more scattered buyers tends to fragment trade and increase the number of liftings, which can be positive for the S&P market by tightening effective vessel supply.

Overlaying these shifts is the looming OPEC+ meeting on Sept. 7, where eight core members including Russia must decide whether to pause the unwinding of production cuts. Since April, the group has been steadily adding back 2.2 million b/d, betting on robust summer demand. With seasonal demand now fading and US tariffs reshaping Russian flows, the alliance faces pressure to prevent a fourth-quarter supply glut. Forecasts already point to global liquids supply of 108.3 million b/d in December against demand of just 105.3 million b/d, implying a sizeable surplus that could push Brent below $60/b. For the SnP market, the confluence of discounted Russian crude, shifting trade routes, and uncertain OPEC+ policy injects both risk and opportunity. Older tankers in the so-called shadow fleet remain heavily employed in Russia-linked trades, but any widening of discounts and diversification of buyers could stretch the available fleet further. At the same time, mainstream owners remain cautious, aware that if OPEC+ mismanages supply, a sharp drop in oil prices could ripple into freight markets.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

The 36th week of 2025 was one of the busiest weeks of the year in bulker SnP activity. In the Capesize sector, Greek buyers acquired the "Frontier Neige" - 183K/2011 Kawasaki and the "Cape Jacaranda" - 181K/2011 Imabari for USD 25 mills each, both basis delivery within 2026. On the Post Panamax segment, the "NBA Rubens" - 107K/2011 Oshima was sold to Greeks for USD 15 mills. On the Kamsarmax sector, the "Kaya Oldendorff" - 82K/2024 Jiangsu New Hantong was sold for mid/high USD 34 mills, while Indian buyers committed the "Ultra Jaguar" - 82K/2016 Tsuneishi Zhoushan for excess USD 24 mills. The "Silver Navigator" - 80K/2011 STX fetched USD 15.5 mills, while Greek buyers acquired the "Eternal Bliss" - 82K/2010 Tsuneishi for mid/high USD 16 mills. On the Ultramax sector, Greeks acquired the Scrubber fitted "Hakata Queen" - 60K/2016 Mitsui for USD 23.5 mills. Two Vietnamese-built Ultramaxes, the "Pacific Ace" - 60K/2012 Hyundai Vinashin and the "Pacific Pride" - 60K/2012 Hyundai Vinashin, were sold for high USD 13 mills each. In addition, the Supramax "Marinor" - 57K/2009 Jiangsu Hantong changed hands for USD 10.8 mills, while the "Jin Rong" - 58K/2008 Tsuneishi Cebu was sold for region USD 12 mills. On the Handysize sector, Nova Marine acquired the "Lilac Harmony" - 39K/2020 Tsuneishi Cebu for low USD 25 mills. Turkish buyers acquired the "Madrid" - 31K/2013 Tsuji Heavy and the "Mykonos" - 31K/2013 Tsuji Heavy for USD 22 mills enbloc. The "Zudar" - 38K/2011 Imabari was sold for mid USD 13 mills. Finally, Fijian Highton acquired enbloc the Ice Class 1C general cargo vessels "Pacific Hero" - 28K/2011 Huanghai and "Pacific Honour" - 28K/2011 Huanghai, each capable of carrying 1,642 TEU, for USD 32 mills.

Wet:

In the Suezmax sector, the "Jasmine Knutsen" - 149K/2005 Samsung was sold for USD 33 mills basis SS/DD freshly passed, while Indian buyers acquired the "Samurai" - 150K/2009 Universal for USD 39 mills. On the Aframax/LR2 sector, Navios Maritime committed on two newbuilding resales, the "Zhoushan Changhong CHB3026" - 115K/2027 Zhoushan Changhong and the "Zhoushan Changhong CHB3027" - 115K/2027 Zhoushan Changhong for USD 66.5 mills each. Finally, on the Small Tanker sector, the "Eastern Orchid" - 13K/2018 Zhejiang Shenzhou was sold at region USD 17 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.