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The dry bulk cargo market entered autumn with vigor

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.

Dr. Fotios –Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant

The dry bulk cargo market entered the autumn with upward trends since, with the exception of Capes, the remaining sizes showed double-digit growth compared to the beginning of August (8/8). In detail, Capes fell by 15.17%, Kamsarmaxes +10.24%, Ultramaxes (63) +10.27% and Handies +15.23%, compared to the beginning of the previous month. Thus, the BDI fell by 72 credits, compared to the same period of the previous month and closed at 1979 credits on Friday, September 5.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market moved last week by vessel’s size, starting with the CAPEs. In Asia, the intense activity of miners and operators was the main regulating factors of the market, while keeping the Australia-China baseline close to $ 10 per ton. The index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed on Friday at $9.99/tn.
In the Atlantic Basin and particularly in the south, both West Africa and South America showed increased activity in the middle of the week on routes to China. In the north the picture was even better with fare increases on routes to Asia. Friday indexes reached up to $23.57/tn for trips from Brazil to China (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $43.19K/day (for route C9) and Transatlantic round trips at $21.89K/day (for route C8).
Regarding Kamsarmaxes, in the Atlantic basin and particularly in the north, the lack of readily available vessels and the strengthening of demand for round Transatlantic trips pushed rates upwards. In the south, activity was also satisfactory, with several closures being at slightly higher levels compared to the previous week. Indicatively, rates for trips from the East Coast of South America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $32-34 K/day (delivery America), from Continent to Asia at $25.5-27.5 K/day (delivery in Continent) and circular Transatlantic trips at $19-21 K/day (delivery in Gibraltar).
On the other hand, in Asia the market was clearly influenced by the positive image of the Atlantic Basin, as a result of which it is gaining ground day by day. Thus, both Australia and the North Pacific moved at the same levels as last week. Round trips to Southeast Asia-Far East moved at $11.5-13.5K/day (delivery Far East).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, Southeast Asia lost ground due to declining demand and the calm that prevailed. UMXs for trips between SE Asia and the Far East went to 15-16.5K/day. Further north, in the Far East the market fell and only in the middle of the week showed some stability. There were few cargoes which were not enough to change the negative climate. UMXs for round trips in the North Pacific (NOPAC) were $14.5-16K/day, for trips to W. C. India $16.5-18K/day and for return trips to the Atlantic Basin (BH) $13.5-15K/day.
In the Middle East Gulf and West C. India the market was struggling to find its way as most routes declined and only trips to the Atlantic remained stable. UMXs for trips to the Far East were $13-14.5K/day (from Middle East Gulf (MEG) – West C. India (WCI)), for short trips between Middle Easf Gulf – West C. India $12-13.5K/day and trips to the Atlantic Basin $12-13.5K/day.
The Atlantic Basin and especially the American Gulf advanced with increased demand and a small list of open vessels. The most pressure was observed on trips to Asia while transatlantic trips remained at the same levels. UMXs rates for transatlantic trips reached up to $31.5-33K/day and to Asia at $28.5-30K/day. The ECSA region experienced a recession both in the north and in the south. Transatlantic trips in the north and trips to Asia in the south were limited and the only support came from West Africa which was however not enough. UMXs rates for trips to S.E. Asia-China moved at $25.5-27K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent) at $25-26.5K/day.
Continent proceeded without any particular changes with scrap cargoes as a regulating factor. In the middle of the week, activity declined but a balance between supply and demand prevailed. UMXs rates for round-local trips moved at $ 15-16.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $ 20.5-22K/day and to Asia at $ 22.5-24K/day. The Mediterranean declined due to limited activity and cargo volume. Thus, several charterers pushed the numbers down. Indicatively, it is reported that a UMX for a trip from the Mediterranean to Asia closed at $ 20.5-22K/day (delivery Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $ 13.5-14K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 17-18.5K/day (excluding war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market started the week as it closed the previous one. However, in the last days of the week the momentum seemed to be lost. Rates for the largest vessels in the category, for round trips, reached up to $ 11-12.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with scrap cargo at $ 15-16.5K/day and for Transatlantic trips at $ 11-12.5K/day.
The Mediterranean was under pressure but there was increased activity for transatlantic trips in the second half of September. Rates for larger vessels (over 36K DWT) for trips within the Mediterranean were at $11.5-13K/day (delivery in Canakkale), to Continent at $10.5-12K/day (delivery in Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $9-10.5K/day (delivery in Canakkale) and to Asia at $13.5-15K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the American Gulf the market showed small corrections due to the steady inflow of capacity and looks set to be further burdened for mid-September. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the category for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged at $ 19-20.5K/day and to Asia at $ 18.5-20K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) region started the week slowly, affected by various seasonal factors. However, new cargoes made their appearance while the supply of capacity remained stable. Thus, the rates of the largest vessels from the ECSA region for Transatlantic trips (Continent-Mediterranean) ranged at $ 20-21.5K/day and to Asia at $ 17-18.5K/day.
In Asia and particularly in the north, there was particular stability with considerable activity for September cargoes. In the south the picture was better as the week started sluggishly but the flow of fires increased afterwards. Further west, in the Gulf of the Middle East and W. C. India the market remained at the same levels with limited activity. Rates for the largest vessels in the category for round trips in the Far East and NOPAC closed at $ 10.5-12K /day, from SE Asia to China at $ 12.5-14K /day and from West C. India to China at $ 8-9.5K /day.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice