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Now that summer has come to an end...

Now that summer has come to an end, it is a good moment to look back and assess how the dry bulk market evolved through the season, comparing the performance of summer 2025 with the previous two summers. Seasonal patterns are often a reliable barometer of underlying demand, with June to August setting the tone for the final quarter of the year. From 2023 onwards, the market has told three very different stories, with Capesizes showing volatility, Panamaxes too, while geared segments displayed resilience & stability.

In the Capesize market, the summer of 2023 stood out for its strength. The season began with C5TC near USD 9,700/day in early June, reflecting weak iron ore flows. Yet as the summer advanced, Chinese restocking and firmer Atlantic activity triggered a sharp recovery. By late August, Capesizes were earning around USD 21,300/day, more than double the opening level and right at the seasonal high. The following year, 2024, painted a different picture. C5TC opened June at USD 23,300/day and climbed into the low USD 32,000s by July, giving the impression of another robust season. However, momentum quickly faded, and by the end of August rates had slipped back to USD 23,900/day, almost identical to the opening level. This year, 2025, the pattern has been similar. Starting June at USD 19,000/day, Capes peaked near USD 31,700/day in late July, only to retreat below USD 24,000/day at the end of August. For a third consecutive summer, the largest vessels failed to consolidate gains, leaving the season defined by volatility. Panamaxes, by contrast, have been steadier. In 2023, the P5TC began June just above USD 9,200/day and closed August at USD 13,500/day, close to its high. In 2024, P5TC opened at USD 15,100/day, briefly touched USD 17,600/day in mid-June, but ended the summer almost flat at USD 15,600/day. This year, however, the picture has been more positive. Panamaxes started June 2025 at USD 10,000/day and climbed throughout the season to finish August at nearly USD 16,800/day, closing on their highs and offering owners a constructive run. Supramaxes and Handysizes have shown even greater resilience. In 2023 S11TC moved from USD 11,100/day in June to USD 13,600/day in August, while in 2024 they strengthened from USD 12,000/day to USD 16,600/day, closing at the top. The summer of 2025 extended this trend: from USD 12,000/day in early June, Supras rose steadily to USD 18,400/day at the end of August, the strongest close of the summer period. Handys followed the same path. From USD 10,800/day in June 2023 they ended that summer at USD 12,800/day, while in 2024 they climbed from USD 12,000/day to USD 13,500/day. This year, HS7TC from USD 10,779/day on early June, advanced to USD 13,600/day by late August, again finishing on the seasonal peak.

The conclusion of this year's summer cannot be separated from developments in China's coal market. Domestic output surged 5.4% year on year in the first half of 2025, curbing demand for imports. But when heavy rains and a government crackdown hit mining in July, production fell 3.8% year on year to its lowest since April 2024. This disruption reopened the arbitrage for seaborne cargoes, reviving Chinese demand just as geared vessel earnings were firming. Imports totalled 139.7m tons in H1 2025, down from 174.6m tons a year earlier, but enquiries rose in late summer as domestic supply faltered. The impact was clear: while Capes struggled to hold their gains, Panamaxes, Supramaxes and Handys ended August on their highs. Summer 2025 confirmed once again that in an uncertain Capesize environment, shifting Chinese coal fundamentals can still underpin strength for the geared fleet, cementing their role as the backbone of stability in the dry bulk market.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

This week saw robust activity in the dry S&P market, reflecting increased momentum and stronger sentiment among buyers and sellers. Chinese buyers acquired the Newcastlemax "Karadeniz Powership Rauf Osman Bey" - 208K/2010 Universal for low USD 33 mills. Moving down the sizes, the Post-Panamax "Costanza" - 93K/2010 Oshima was sold for USD 16.1 mills to Indonesian buyers, while the Kamsarmax "Sea Venus" - 81K/2013 New Century found new owners for USD 16.5 mills. On the Kamsarmax sector, the "Sea Orpheus" - 79K/2015 Jinhai Heavy changed hands for USD 18.5 mills, while on the Panamax sector the vintage "The Able" - 72K/1998 Hitachi Zosen was sold for excess USD 5 mills basis dd due. On the Ultramax sector, the Shin Kurushima built "Pavo Breeze" - 64K/2023 was sold for xs 32 to Greeks, the "CP Shenzhen" - 64K/2017 Chengxi and the "CP Nanjing" - 64K/2017 Chengxi were sold for high USD 23 mills each. The Supramax "Doric Victory" - 58K/2010 Tsuneishi Cebu found new owners for USD 15 mills, while the 3-year-older "Meteora" - 58K/2007 Tsuneishi Cebu was sold for USD 11.65 mills. Last but not least, Middle Eastern buyers acquired the Handysize "Minanur Cebi 1" - 34K/2011 21St Century for USD 11.6 mills.

Wet:

This week's Tanker S&P activity was largely driven by transactions in the bigger vessel classes, reflecting stronger interest in the crude sector. The VLCC "Monaco Loyalty"- 307K/2007 Dalian was sold for low USD 40s. On the Suezmax sector the "Sofia"- 165K/2010 Hyundai Samho changed hands for USD 40 mills, while the one-year-older "Constantios" - 158K/2009 Hyundai Samho found new owners for region USD 40 mills. On the MR2 sector, the "Hafnia Nordica" - 53K/2010 Shin Kurushima was sold for low USD 20 mills. Finally, Korean buyers acquired the Small tanker "Condor Trader" - 22K/2016 Shin Kurushima for USD 28.8 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.