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The oil market is once again caught between contrasting narratives
- Λεπτομέρειες
- Δημοσιεύτηκε στις Δευτέρα, 25 Αυγούστου 2025 21:06

The oil market is once again caught between contrasting narratives, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of an "ever more bloated market" while OPEC projects a far more optimistic outlook. The IEA has cut its demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 680,000 b/d and 700,000 b/d, citing weak OECD consumption and softer-than-expected emerging market demand. China remains central: demand rose 230,000 b/d in June year-on-year, the first such gain since February, yet growth is expected to slow to just 90,000 b/d in 2025 and 160,000 b/d in 2026.
OPEC, in contrast, sees 2026 demand growth at 1.4 million b/d and has raised its "call" on OPEC+ crude to 43.1 million b/d. The group highlights persistently low OECD stocks—still 92 million barrels below the five-year average—arguing that demand resilience and tight inventories will allow voluntary cuts to be phased out without hurting prices. Brent has reflected this tug-of-war, dropping to $61/b in May, rebounding above $80/b during the Israel-Iran flare-up, and now hovering near $68/b.
China's import behaviour adds to the uncertainty. Crude inflows hit a 22-month high in June but slowed in July, with further easing likely unless the state boosts strategic reserves. Independent refiners face tighter quotas, while state-owned refiners sit on nearly one billion barrels of commercial stocks. Without new SPR buying, imports could fall to 11.05 million b/d, though talk of a 100-million-barrel SPR build may sustain current levels. Chinese refiners are also cautious on Russian Urals ahead of US-Russia talks, shifting instead toward discounted Iranian and ESPO grades.
Meanwhile, India is charting its own course. Hit by Washington's 25% tariff on imports, New Delhi is accelerating diversification, strengthening ties with Brazil. Brazilian flows to India jumped 75% year-on-year in H1 2025 to 72,000 b/d, led by Petrobras' Lula/Tupi and Sepia grades. Political momentum is growing, with Prime Minister Modi and President Lula exploring deeper cooperation, even upstream ventures. While freight from Brazil costs three times as much as Middle Eastern supply and takes a month to ship, the shift underscores how tariffs and sanctions are redrawing oil flows—supporting tonne-mile demand and long-haul VLCC employment.
These shifting fundamentals have been mirrored in tanker earnings across July and August. Aframax rates slid through most of July, bottoming near USD 23,200/day on July 23, before rebounding above USD 35,000/day by mid-August as Atlantic basin activity picked up. Suezmaxes followed an even sharper trajectory, rising from USD 27,500/day in early July to above USD 62,000/day by August 22, as Kazakhstan diverts crude exports from the BTC pipeline to the CPC terminal at Novorossiysk, where capacity constraints have shifted liftings to suezmaxes over aframaxes. VLCC earnings, meanwhile, moved from the low USD 30,000s/day in July to over USD 47,000/day in August 22, supported by longer-haul demand from India and China's stockpiling talk. MR performance was more uneven: while the Atlantic basket climbed from USD 19,000/day mid-July to over USD 36,000/day in mid-August, the Pacific basket remained subdued, hovering mostly in the low USD 20,000s/day. The divergence across segments reflects the interplay between macro supply-demand balances and regional trade distortions. Suezmaxes and Aframaxes, closer to Atlantic and Med disruptions, have surged, while VLCCs benefit from India's diversification and potential SPR flows. MRs, more reliant on product demand and shorter-haul trades, have struggled to keep momentum.
Sale and Purchase
Dry:
The dry S&P activity was high for one more week. On the Capesize sector, the Scrubber fitted "Pacific South" - 176K/2012 Jiangsu Rongsheng was sold for USD 22.75 mills to undisclosed buyers, while Greeks acquired the "Frontier Bonanza" - 179K/2010 HHI for USD 26.2 mills.
In the Kamsarmax sector, the Scrubber fitted "Darya Shanti" - 82K/2016 Jiangsu Newyangzi changed hands for USD 22.3 mills to Chinese buyers.
On the Panamax sector, the "Navios Hope" - 75K/2005 Universal was sold for USD 8.5 mills to undisclosed buyers with SS/DD freshly passed.
Moving down to the Supramax sector, Malaysians acquired the "Moana Baq" - 57K/2012 Qingshan for USD 13.25 mills, while the "African Jacana" - 59K/2012 NACKS was sold for low USD 16 mills to undisclosed buyers. Greeks were also active in the Ultramax/Handy sectors, acquiring the "Beauty Lotus" - 64K/2015 China Shipping for USD 21 mills and the "Aston Trader" - 39K/2017 Jiangmen Nanyang at an undisclosed price.
Finally, on the Handymax sector, Chinese buyers acquired the "Atilla" - 38K/2011 Samho for USD 13.2 mills.
Wet:
On the VLCC sector, the Scrubber fitted "Searacer" - 297K/2009 Dalian was sold to Chinese buyers for high USD 40 mills. Additionally, the Scrubber fitted sisters "Bunga Kasturi Enam" - 299K/2008 Universal and "Bunga Kasturi Lima" - 300K/2007 Universal were sold enbloc to Chinese buyers for USD 88 mills.
In the Aframax/LR2 sector, the LR2 "Pacific Sky" - 115K/2009 STX changed hands to Chinese buyers for USD 32 mills.
Finally, on the MR2 sector, Greeks acquired the Scrubber fitted "STI Maestro" - 47K/2020 Hyundai Vietnam for USD 42 mills.
Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.