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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 1st August 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant & Chartering Executive

 & Commercial Director

TMC SHIPPING

Setting the Course – Market Sentiment & Strategic Bearings

As the calendar turns to August, the dry bulk market continues its familiar balancing act between opportunity and oversupply. Amidst unpredictable currents and shifting regional dynamics, the Handysize and Ultramax segments present both headwinds and fair winds. This week’s developments reflect a market navigating seasonal patterns, geopolitical undercurrents, and supply-demand friction — offering valuable clues for where the compass may point next.

This briefing distills the week’s developments into a clear navigation chart — combining market behavior, rate movements, and regional momentum — helping decision-makers chart profitable voyages ahead.

Handysize & Ultramax Sectors

1. Handysize Market Overview– Calm Waters with Pockets of Momentum

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)

A steady tide in the Atlantic. Healthy fixture volumes kept rates buoyant, with a firm August cargo lineup bolstering owner sentiment. While rates held steady, a quiet optimism has crept in — charterers may need to act swiftly before winds shift.

East Coast South America (ECSA)

A market of two latitudes:

North ECSA remained firm with a steady stream of stems, supporting rates.

South ECSA, however, saw calmer seas, with owners struggling to fix tonnage. West Africa emerged as a pressure valve, absorbing surplus vessels.

Outlook: Expect the compass to remain fixed on a sideways course.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE)

Rates dipped slightly as tonnage availability crept in, but the overall picture remains anchored in stability. As summer lull persists, don’t expect any dramatic course changes.

Mediterranean

A curious scenario unfolded: supply stayed flat, but owners aggressively pursued premium routes, pushing surrounding lanes to firmer levels. Demand remains healthy, and the basin shows signs of resilience.
Forecast: Holding firm, with selective opportunities.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)

Cargo flows held steady, yet this stability failed to translate into rate movement. A fresh injection of demand could shift the needle — all eyes are on next week’s fixtures.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)

The region saw a build-up of prompt tonnage, slightly tempering rates. However, spot fixtures did occasionally punch above expected levels, suggesting room for micro-bullish moves.
Tone: Neutral, with potential for opportunistic gains.

2. Ultramax Sector Overview – Winds Picking Up on Select Routes

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)

An early-week oversupply trimmed sails, but momentum quickly returned mid-week as demand firmed — particularly for Front Haul trips, where premiums were on offer.

Projection: A tightening market with an upward drift.

East Coast South America (ECSA)

Northern range saw limited supply and steady demand, pushing rates higher.

Southern range, conversely, remains oversupplied — owners here are navigating tougher waters.
Expectation: A tale of two markets — bullish in the north, bearish further south.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE)

Scrap cargoes gave the market an injection of energy, with a relatively short tonnage list helping to lift sentiment.

Heading into next week: Outlook remains positive.

Mediterranean

The Western Med experienced an uptick in demand, though fixtures held steady — perhaps held back by cautious charterers. In the Eastern Med, solid cargo volume underpinned confidence.
Overall tone: Firm, with room for selective gains.

South Africa

A classic case of oversupply meets tepid demand. Ballasters from India continue to crowd the region, putting rates under pressure. Backhaul demand helped soften the blow, but not enough to turn the tide.

Outlook: Needs a clear push in demand to avoid further slippage.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)

Despite a declining fleet of prompt vessels, chartering activity was underwhelming. Period interest remained surprisingly firm — a silver lining in an otherwise muted week.

Next week: Expect softer sentiment unless demand reignites.

Southeast Asia / Far East (SE Asia/FE)

Steel cargoes from the north drove a modest lift in rates, while the southern lanes (clinker and coal) managed to balance vessel supply without stirring the waters.

Heading forward: Stability prevails, no major shifts expected.

Final Bearings – Navigating the Week Ahead

This week’s voyage across the Handysize and Ultramax sectors reveals a patchwork market — where certain regions are catching tailwinds, while others are becalmed. The overarching theme remains one of microvolatility, with shifting trade flows and evolving vessel availability creating selective opportunity.

Stay connected. Stay informed. Let’s shape smarter shipping together.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment ad