News in English

The newbuilding orderbook data for dry bulk and tanker in 2024 and 2025 illustrates a dramatic transformation

The newbuilding orderbook data for dry bulk and tanker in 2024 and 2025 illustrates a dramatic transformation in global shipbuilding activity. After a period of intense ordering, 2025 has brought a stunning contraction, with the impact felt sharply at Chinese shipyards—but also across all leading maritime nations. The numbers reveal not only the changing tide of industry sentiment, but also the geopolitical and macroeconomic crosscurrents influencing owner decisions.

In the dry bulk sector, total global newbuilding contracts in the first half of 2024 reached 422 vessels, with Chinese yards dominating at 314 contracts (a commanding 74% share). Japanese yards followed with 95 contracts (23%), while the remainder—just 13 contracts—were scattered among various other countries. However, by the first half of 2025, the entire market had hit the brakes: global bulker contracts plunged to only 76. China secured 41 of these (54%), Japan 32 (42%), and other countries a negligible 3 contracts. This marks an 87% drop in Chinese bulker newbuildings and a 66% fall for Japan year-on-year. For context, June 2024 alone saw Chinese yards ink 101 bulker contracts—more than twice the total China managed in all of H1 2025. The collapse is not just statistical, but truly breathtaking in its pace and depth.

The tanker sector saw a similarly abrupt shift. In H1 2024, global tanker newbuilding orders totaled 486, of which Chinese yards landed 360 (again, 74%). S. Korea followed with 70 contracts (15%), while the remaining 56 contracts were scattered among various other countries. By H1 2025, global tanker orders had nosedived to 102, with China's share down to 49 (48%), representing an 86% year-on-year decrease. This is not just a Chinese phenomenon: the broader market's appetite for new tankers has waned considerably, with total orders falling by nearly 80%.

A closer monthly breakdown underscores these shifts. In Chinese bulker yards, contracts in January–March 2025 numbered just 11, followed by 30 in April–June—far below 2024's robust monthly tallies. The tanker story is even starker: Chinese yards received 38 contracts in Q1 2025, but only 11 in Q2. These are not normal seasonal fluctuations; they represent a wholesale retreat from new investment. Across all countries, the drop is similar, with new bulk carrier orders falling from 422 to 76 and tanker orders from 486 to 102 in the first six months year-on-year

While the steep post-March decline in Chinese contracts coincides with the US administration's new USTR trade measures—and these certainly may have chilled some sentiment or complicated negotiations—the data makes clear that this is not a story of China alone. The drop-off is global, deep, and synchronized across all major shipbuilding nations and both key vessel types. Factors such as uncertainty in world trade, weaker freight markets, high newbuilding prices, and perhaps even anticipation of regulatory change seem to be driving owners to the sidelines. US trade policy may have added friction, but the overwhelming force is a broader pullback in shipping investment worldwide. The "pause" button on fleet expansion in 2025, particularly in China, is above all a reflection of industry-wide caution, not just policy headwinds.

S&P activity:

Dry:

Dry S&P activity was fairly firm this week, with a total of 11 vessels changing hands, ranging in age from 9 to 14 years, most of them being China-built. On the Capesize sector, Chinese buyers acquired the Scrubber fitted "Pacific West" - 176K/2012 Jinhai Heavy for USD 23.2 mills, while the one-year older Scrubber fitted "Pacific North" - 180K/2011 Dalian was sold for excess USD 25 mills to Greek buyers. The Scrubber fitted Kamsarmax "Ultra Lion" - 82K/2015 Tsuneishi Zhoushan was sold for USD 24.8 mills. Greek buyers acquired the Ultramax "Beauty Peony" - 64K/2015 CSI Jiangsu for excess USD 20 mills, while the Electronic M/E Supramax "Stonewell Pioneer" - 57K/2014 Taizhou Sanfu was also sold to Greek buyers for region USD 14 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the "Hamburg Way" - 39K/2016 JNS and the "Hamburg Pearl" - 39K/2016 JNS were sold for low USD 17 mills each to different European buyers, while the 5-year-older OHBS "Wooyang Queen"- 37K/2011 Saiki was sold for high USD 13 mills to Vietnamese buyers.

Tanker:

On the Suezmax sector, the Scrubber fitted "Adebomi" - 151K/2004 Universal and the "Ijemo" - 152K/2003 HHI were sold enbloc for excess USD 40 mills. Greek buyers acquired 2x MR2, the "Oriental Diamond" - 51K/2008 SPP and the "Oriental Gold" - 51K/2008 SPP for USD 31 mills enbloc. Finally, the MR1 "Favola"- 37K/2002 STX was sold for excess USD 7 mills to Nigerian buyers.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.