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The analysis of daily Baltic Exchange TCE data from January 2018 through July 10, 2025 reveals persistent seasonal cycles

The analysis of daily Baltic Exchange Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) data from January 2018 through July 10, 2025 reveals persistent seasonal cycles across all main dry-bulk vessel classes—Capesize, Kamsarmax, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize. To gauge how June–July 2025 compares with past mid-summer performance, we compiled all daily rates for June and July in each year from 2018 to 2024, calculating both the long-run average and median. We then compared these benchmarks with the June–July 2025 figures (full June plus the first ten days of July).

For Capesize vessels, which typically see peaks in late winter linked to Chinese steel restocking and a subsequent plateau in summer, the historical June–July average TCE is $21,740 per day and the median is $22,444 per day. In the June–July 2025 window, Capesize rates averaged $21,613 per day—just 0.6 percent below the seven-year mean—and recorded a median of $22,592 per day, about 0.7 percent above the historical median. Such minimal deviation indicates that Capesize freight has adhered closely to its usual mid-summer pattern this year.

The Kamsarmax segment, which blends coal and grain trades and typically posts a June–July average of $16,662 per day (median $13,906), is showing more marked softness. In mid-2025, Kamsarmax rates averaged $12,564 per day, roughly 24.6 percent below the historic mean, while the median of $12,610 per day stood about 9.3 percent below the long-run median. This underperformance suggests weaker coal restocking and agricultural exports relative to prior summers. Panamax vessels, crucial for both thermal coal and grains, had a seven-year June–July average of $15,176 per day and median $12,665. During June–July 2025, Panamax rates averaged $11,228 per day—26 percent below the historical mean—and the median came in at $11,274 per day, nearly 11 percent under its long-run median. The gap points to softer minor-bulk demand and a lull in export activity this summer.

Supramax ships, prized for their flexibility across minor bulks, fertilizers, and steel products, historically recorded June–July averages near $15,418 per day with a median of $11,414. In the current period, Supramax rates averaged $10,530 per day—a 31.7 percent shortfall versus the seven-year average—and the median of $10,271 per day was about 10 percent below the historical median. The sharper drop in mean underscores occasional high-rate spikes in past summers that have not materialized in 2025.

Handysize vessels exhibit the least dramatic seasonality. From 2018 to 2024 their June–July average stood at $14,088 per day with a median of $10,054. In contrast, June–July 2025 saw these vessels average $11,153 per day—21 percent under the long-run mean—yet record a median of $11,224 per day, more than 11 percent above the historical median. This divergence between mean and median reflects a flatter distribution this year, with fewer extreme low‐rate days.

In summary, while the characteristic seasonal cycle—spring highs followed by a summer moderating phase—remains intact, its amplitude has varied by vessel class in mid-2025. Capesize and Handysize segments are essentially in line with their historical medians, whereas Kamsarmax, Panamax, and Supramax freight rates are running 9–10 percent below their seasonal medians and 25–32 percent below their long-run summer averages. These discrepancies likely mirror subdued commodity flows and more cautious chartering during the first half of July 2025. Continued monitoring will be key to assessing whether this dampened summer freight environment signals a broader shift in dry-bulk demand dynamics or simply a temporary mid-year lull.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

Activity remained firm this week across the dry bulk sectors, with a mix of modern and vintage units changing hands. On the Kamsarmax sector, the buying appetite was firm with 4 vessels changing hands. The Kamsarmax "Shandong Fu Yuan" - 82K/2018 Jiangsu Jinling was sold for high USD 23 mills, while the 2-year older "Ultra Puma" - 82K/2016 Tsuneishi was sold for low/mid USD 25 mills to Far Eastern buyers. Moreover, the "Sea Pegasus" - 82K/2014 Qingdao Wuchuan and the "Sea Gemini" - 82K/2014 Qingdao Wuchuan were sold enbloc for USD 17.5 mills each. Moving down the sizes, Greek buyers acquired the "IVS Prestwick" - 62K/2019 Shin Kurushima and the "IVS Okudogo" - 61K/2019 Shin Kurushima for USD 53 mills enbloc. On the Supramax sector, the "Mindanao" - 56K/2010 Mitsui was sold for excess USD 15 mills to Chinese buyers, whilst the "Jin Gang" - 57K/2009 Chengxi was also sold to Chinese buyers for USD 10.8 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, Vietnamese buyers acquired the "Sea Dolphin C"- 34K/2011 21St Century for USD 11.7 mills, while the "African Swan" - 33K/2005 Kanda was sold for USD 6.5 mills to Chinese buyers

Wet:

This week saw a handful of transactions across the crude and product tanker segments. In the VLCC space, the "Atlantic Loyalty" - 307K/2007 Dalian was reported sold for excess USD 44 mills to undisclosed interests, reflecting firm values for older large crude carriers. In the Aframax/LR2 segment, Greek buyers acquired the "Hesperia Tide" - 115K/2025 Zhoushan Changhong for a price in the region of USD 70 mills. On the product side, the "Harris" - 41K/2009 SLS was sold to Nigerian buyers for USD 17.2 mills. Meanwhile, the StSt tanker "Gwen" - 19.7K/2008 Fukuoka was reported sold to UAE-based interests for USD 16.2 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.