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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 6th June 2025

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

TMC Commercial Director

Wishing a blessed and peaceful Eid al-Adha to our Muslim colleagues and friends, and a joyful Pentecost Monday (Kali Deftera tis Pentikostis) to our Christian counterparts. May these meaningful celebrations bring health, harmony, and renewed spirit to all.

Handysize & Ultramax Market Update: Week in Review

Handysize Market Overview: Market Pulse Across Regions

• US Gulf & US East Coast (USG/USEC): The Handysize market in the US Gulf and US East Coast remained active throughout the week, with a notable volume of discussions taking place. Despite the robust cargo flow, a wide gap between owners’ and charterers’ ideas on freight rates continued to restrict fixture activity. Many operators chose to deploy their own tonnage, limiting spot market involvement. With underlying demand staying firm, expectations are that the market will maintain its strength in the week ahead.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): The ECSA region showed encouraging momentum, driven by a significant tightening of vessel supply, particularly from both South America and West Africa. The imbalance between demand and available tonnage led to several fixtures being concluded at rates notably higher than the previous week. Given the ongoing strong cargo list and deep-draft operational challenges at the river, the positive trajectory is likely to continue through the end of the month.
• Continent (Northwest Europe): Signs of life began to emerge in the Continent this week, with a modest increase in cargo flow. However, an oversupply of tonnage created headwinds for owners, preventing any upward rate movement. As the supply-demand imbalance persists, the market is expected to remain flat in the coming days.
• Mediterranean: The Mediterranean region faced a muted week, with sparse activity and limited availability of grain and mineral cargoes. The long list of open tonnage, combined with subdued demand, exerted downward pressure on rates. Market fundamentals suggest continued weakness in the short term.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): Handysize activity in the MEG and Indian subcontinent remained subdued. A fragile balance between supply and demand was observed, resulting in stable yet uninspiring market conditions. Any uptick in demand could quickly lead to improvements in freight rates.
• Southeast Asia / Far East: In Southeast Asia, the market was primarily supported by steady Australian cargoes in the south. However, many fixtures were not replenished, putting additional pressure on owners. In the north, a lack of fresh requirements, coupled with national holidays in Korea (Tuesday and Friday), reduced fixture opportunities. Overall, market sentiment remains soft with no immediate signs of a turnaround.

Ultramax Market Overview: Regional Highlights and Forward Outlook

• US Gulf & US East Coast (USG/USEC):The Ultramax market opened with some transatlantic (TA) opportunities, but owners showed limited interest in East Mediterranean destinations. While voyages to Asia from the US Gulf remained firm, the US East Coast was relatively quiet. A sense of cautious optimism has emerged for next week, driven by an expected uptick in available tonnage.
• East Coast South America (ECSA): The Ultramax market in ECSA demonstrated positive movement, with increased activity for both TA and Far East (FH) routes. The tightening tonnage list contributed to firming rates. However, next week is expected to bring additional ballasters from West Africa, which may put downward pressure on the market as early as the following week.
• Continent (Northwest Europe): A tale of two halves defined the Continent’s performance. The first half of the week was quiet, while the latter part saw a rebound, fueled by increased demand for scrap cargoes. Notably, many vessels ballasted toward the US East Coast, suggesting a potential stabilization of regional rates as transatlantic repositioning takes hold.
• Mediterranean: The Mediterranean experienced a particularly active week, with solid demand across clinker, cement, and fertilizer cargoes. This incentivized many vessels in the eastern Mediterranean to remain in the area, avoiding westward ballast. Should grain cargoes increase in the upcoming week, a further uptick in freight levels is likely.
• South Africa (SAFR): Market sentiment in South Africa remained negative despite a reduced number of ballasters. The lengthy tonnage list maintained downward pressure on rates. A notable increase in cargo demand is essential for any positive shift in market direction next week.
• Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): The Ultramax market in the MEG and Indian region opened on a soft note amid the Eid al-Adha holiday period (June 5–9). A surplus of vessels and lackluster demand further suppressed activity, particularly toward the end of the week. While a post-holiday rebound is anticipated, the oversupply issue is expected to keep the market under pressure.
• Southeast Asia / Far East: Little change was recorded in both the northern and southern sectors of Southeast Asia. A lack of momentum from key loading areas like NOPAC and Australia contributed to subdued conditions. The only marginal interest came from backhaul voyages to the US West Coast. Barring any new cargo flow, the market is expected to remain steady and unremarkable.

Conclusion

While some regional bright spots exist—particularly in ECSA and the Mediterranean—the global Handysize and Ultramax markets are facing persistent challenges related to oversupply, seasonal holidays, and imbalanced demand. Stakeholders are closely watching the next cargo cycles for signals of recovery, especially as more vessels reposition or complete existing fixtures.

Disclaimer

This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice