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Weekly Market Report & Predictions: Handy and Ultramax Sectors 16th May 2025
- Λεπτομέρειες
- Δημοσιεύτηκε στις Δευτέρα, 19 Μαΐου 2025 07:15
Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
TMC Commercial Director
Handysize & Ultramax Market Update: Calm Waters Hide Subtle Undercurrents
As the shipping world gathered in Copenhagen for shipbrokers week—and with Breakbulk Europe 2025 taking place in Rotterdam—several regional freight markets experienced a temporary lull.
This brief pause in trading, however, revealed underlying market dynamics that may influence developments in both the Handysize and Ultramax segments in the weeks to come.
Handysize Market Overview: Holding the Line Amid Thin Volumes
- US Gulf and East Coast (USG/USEC): With a significant number of market participants attending Breakbulk Europe in the Netherlands and maritime events & notable receptions in Denmark, spot activity slowed noticeably. Fresh cargo inquiries were limited, leaving the market relatively inactive, with only a few fixtures concluded. Some interest in time charter trips emerged, and although these haven’t yet led to increased rates, there is cautious optimism for improvement as market activity resumes.
- East Coast South America (ECSA): Despite global attention being focused elsewhere, the ECSA market remained relatively active. However, a shortage of new cargoes, combined with growing vessel supply, continued to exert downward pressure on earnings. As brokers return to their desks, expectations are building for a rebound in fixtures, particularly for northbound and West African routes.
- Continent: Activity was subdued as the market effectively paused during the aforementioned events. A tightening tonnage list presents potential for upward rate movement next week, assuming a modest recovery in demand.
- Mediterranean: Market sentiment across the Mediterranean mirrored the Continent's quiet tone. Conditions remained flat, but there is growing anticipation of renewed movement—especially if demand from North Africa and the Levant picks up.
- Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): Charterers attempted to cover prompt cargoes amid a tightening tonnage pool. Nonetheless, activity remained limited, and the market fundamentals were largely unchanged. The outlook remains static, with no major developments expected in the immediate term.
- Southeast Asia / Far East: This region offered a more positive picture, with strong demand from Australia, the North Pacific (NOPAC), and Southeast Asia maintaining firm market levels. Both northern and southern routes benefited from consistent cargo flows. The sentiment remains bullish heading into the second half of the month.
Ultramax Market Overview: Navigating Cross-Currents
- US Gulf and East Coast (USG/USEC): Following a bullish run, the market showed signs of stabilization. Rates came under pressure due to lower activity, even as owners maintained higher ideas supported by a short tonnage list. The current standoff between charterers and owners suggests a flat market is likely in the near term.
- East Coast South America (ECSA): The market experienced a noticeable slowdown, with limited fixtures and subdued demand across all routes. While momentum was clearly lacking, activity is expected to pick up gradually as post-event operations resume.
- Continent: Mirroring the Handysize sector, the Ultramax market in the Continent was largely inactive. However, a few prompt cargoes are beginning to emerge, which could support a modest recovery in fixtures next week. Overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
- Mediterranean: The region remained divided. The Western Mediterranean maintained solid demand, particularly for fronthaul trips to Asia, keeping rates firm. Conversely, the Eastern Mediterranean faced weaker fundamentals, with limited demand from the Black Sea exerting pressure on rates. Any recovery will likely depend on a rebound in cargo volumes from key ports such as Constanta and Novorossiysk.
- South Africa (SAFR): After a period of strong activity, the market paused. A slightly bearish tone has emerged, with increasing ballasters expected to arrive from the Indian Ocean and the Middle East Gulf. Without fresh cargo to absorb this supply, spot rates could face downward pressure.
- Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India): With vessel supply on the rise and demand waning, charterers gained more flexibility in negotiations. Many owners responded by softening their rate expectations to remain competitive. The short-term outlook appears muted.
- Southeast Asia / Far East: The week started slowly due to public holidays in Singapore and Indonesia. However, the second half saw a strong rebound in activity, especially in North and Southeast Asia. With players returning and cargo flow improving, sentiment is trending upward. Barring unexpected disruptions, the market is expected to remain firm.
Conclusion: Signals Beneath the Surface
This week’s market movements were defined as much by absence as by action. Maritime conferences and networking events diverted attention and temporarily slowed fixture momentum. Yet, beneath the quiet, several regional fundamentals remained intact—or are beginning to stir once again.
The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the market can regain its earlier momentum or whether new headwinds lie ahead. As always, regional disparities will continue to shape the narrative across both the Handysize and Ultramax sectors.
Market participants will be watching closely as the global fleet returns to full engagement and spot activity resumes.
Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein are for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice
