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As 2024 draws to a close

As 2024 draws to a close with just two weeks remaining, a review of the dry bulk market reveals a volatile year marked by significant declines across all segments. The Baltic Exchange Timecharter averages tell a story of substantial deterioration, with Cape 5 T/C Routes experiencing the steepest decline of 65% from their January levels, followed by drops in the Panamax segment where BPI-82 & BPI-74 routes fell by 47% & 51% respectively. The Supramax segment showed relatively better resilience with BSI-63 & BSI-58 routes declining by 27% & 30%, while the Handy segment demonstrated the most stability with BHSI-38 routes down 23%. Throughout the year, the Cape market's volatility was evident as rates peaked at $35,780/day before plummeting to $10,382 on December 12. The Pmax segment saw its highest points at $20,757/day & $19,421/day for 82K & 74K vessels respectively, before reaching their lowest points around $8,955/day & $7,619/day on December 13. The Umax/Smax segment wasn't spared, with both BSI-63 & BSI-58 hitting their lowest points on December 13 at $12,117/day & $10,083/day, a significant drop from their peaks of $18,476/day & $16,441/day. The Handy segment showed the least volatility, moving between $14,537/day & $10,197/day within 2024.This market weakness has inevitably impacted vessel values in the second hand market, with a particularly pronounced decline since early September. Notable examples include a 82K 2019 Tsuneishi Cebu-built vessel selling for approximately $37 mills in July, while a same age 82K Tsuneishi Cebu-built vessel sold for around $34 mills in late November. In the Ultramax segment, 61K 2017 DACKS-built vessels saw their values drop from $27.8 mills in August to $24.5 mills in late November. The Supramax segment witnessed similar trends, with a 57K 2009 Jiangsu Hantong-built vessel selling for $13 mills in July, while a sister vessel, one year younger, sold at the same price of $13 mills in December. It is worth noting that, although prices have corrected from their summer peaks, they have returned to levels comparable to the beginning of 2024, albeit with significantly reduced freight rates.

The demand for second-hand dry bulk vessels (>= 10,000 DWT) has experienced a significant surge during 2024, with more than 790 ships changing hands, around 16% up compared to the similar period of 2023 when a total of 685 vessels were sold. The Smax & Handy sectors have noted the highest buying appetite in 2024 with 181 and 177 sales respectively, constituting around 23% and 22% accordingly out of total bulk carrier sales. The Cape sector ranks third in terms of buyer interest, with 91 vessels sold. Umax, Pmax, and Kamsar sectors have recorded almost similar transaction volumes this year, with 64, 67, and 74 sales respectively. Nearly half of the sales were for vessels aged 11- 15 years old, followed by 16-20-year-old vessels, which accounted for 18% of all bulk carrier sales, while 6-10 years old vessels were also high on buying appetite with a share of 16% out of total sales. Dry bulk newbuilding momentum remains strong, though it has slowed down compared to a year ago. During the first 11 months of 2024, a total of 449 contracts were signed, 20% down from the same period in 2023 when 560 orders were placed. Umax and Kamsar sectors drive the NB activity in 2024, with 171 and 116 orders respectively. As of November 2024, the dry bulk orderbook-to-fleet ratio (in terms of DWT) stood at 10.2%, while in the same period of 2023 was 8.2%, with dry bulk fleet currently standing at 14,013 vessels, while the total bulk carrier orderbook at 1,324 vessels.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

On the Capesize sector, the “Zampa Blue” - 178K/2011 Mitsui was sold for USD 30 mills, while on the same sector, Chinese buyers acquired the “Feg Success” - 183K/2010 Kawasaki for USD 28 mills. Greek buyers acquired the Supramax “Indigo Omega” - 56K/2012 Mitsui for USD 17.2 mills. On the Handysize sector, the “Oak Harbour” - 34K/2005 Oshima was sold for USD 8.8 mills.

Wet:

On the VLCC sector, the Scrubber fitted “DHT Scandinavia” - 318K/2006 Hyundai Samho was sold for USD 43.3 mills to Chinese buyers. On the MR2 sector the “Torm Republican”- 47K/2006 HMD changed hands for USD 18 mills, while the Scrubber fitted “Torm Helvig”- 46K/2005 STX found new owners for USD 18 mills

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.