News in English

Firm Hulls, Selective Wind: The Dry Bulk Market Enters October on Uneven Ground

Ultramax & Handysize | Week ending 2 October 2026

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

The dry bulk market closes the week in a position that is firm in places, softer in others, but far from directionless. The Atlantic continues to carry much of the commercial weight, while Asia is increasingly divided between a resilient southern basin and a more cautious northern market ahead of China’s Golden Week. Across both Ultramax and Handysize, the central issue remains the same: available prompt tonnage rather than headline cargo volume is determining where owners can defend their ideas.

That distinction matters. Several markets have eased without losing their underlying balance, while others have strengthened not because demand has suddenly accelerated, but because the prompt fleet has become harder to find. In practical terms, October is beginning with a market where positioning and timing may prove more valuable than simply reading the headline index.

South Atlantic — A Firm Hull Beneath a Modest Correction

The South Atlantic Ultramax market remains well supported after last week’s gains, although the week brought a modest correction, particularly on transatlantic business. Rates have edged lower, but the movement looks more like a market adjusting after a firm run than the beginning of a change in sentiment. Prompt tonnage remains relatively tight and owners are showing little urgency to abandon their ideas, leaving the market with a firm underlying keel.

The Handysize market has been similarly steady, although the distinction between North and South is becoming increasingly important. North Brazil continues to show the stronger hand, with fresh enquiry building gradually and charterers having to work harder to secure prompt vessels. The South remains more rangebound, with cargo replacing fixing activity sufficiently to keep rates close to last week’s benchmarks.

The forward position is more revealing. Around 11 vessels are now marked on subjects, potentially reducing the effective available fleet into the low to mid-40s. Against the recent level of demand, that is a constructive prompt position. Algerian tender activity has also added to the forward cargo picture, while several fix-fails earlier in the week temporarily released tonnage into the prompt window.

The South Atlantic therefore finishes the week supported rather than aggressively rising. The South still requires a catalyst to break out of its range, but North Brazil is showing the clearer tightening trend. If the vessels now sitting on subjects continue to disappear without being replaced at the same pace, the balance could become materially more interesting next week.

US Gulf — Where the Tonnage List Finally Takes Command

The US Gulf Ultramax market began the week with considerable momentum. Coming off the back of ABSA, an early injection of transatlantic and fronthaul cargo produced a number of fixtures on Monday and Tuesday. The problem for owners was that the growing tonnage list prevented that demand from translating into higher rates.

As the week progressed, the tone softened noticeably. Prompt fronthaul vessels began offering below last-done levels, in some cases with waiting days for owners’ account. Transatlantic business also came under pressure, with ships fixing at slightly above $30,000 for grains to the Mediterranean and in the low to mid-$30,000s for petcoke. At the same time, India destination continued to fix in the high $30,000s.

The numbers tell the story of the changing balance. The US Gulf tonnage list now stands at more than 40 vessels 30 days forward, seven more than at the beginning of the week. That is sufficient to cap the upside for now. Yet the East Coast of the United States remains finely balanced, with strong Continent scrap economics continuing to discourage ballasters. The market is therefore softer, but not structurally weak.

The Handysize market has undergone a similar transition. Activity remained strong, but the exceptional levels seen in recent weeks have given way to more negotiation as prompt tonnage has competed against a cargo list weighted towards mid-October and beyond. The wide bid-offer spread kept fixing uneven, with charterers testing how far owners were prepared to move.

Several North Coast South America and Caribbean positions chose to ballast towards North Brazil rather than wait for employment locally, gradually clearing the prompt list. Most spot and near-spot vessels have now disappeared, leaving a cleaner starting position for next week. The market closes softer, but with a credible basis for stabilisation if a fresh flow of October cargoes emerges.

West Coast South America — Ballast Becomes a Commercial Decision

West Coast South America produced a moderate increase in Ultramax fixing activity, with more vessels securing employment and rates showing early signs of stabilisation. The important factor is positioning: WCSA tonnage continues to favour North Pacific business, reducing the number of ships competing directly for local cargoes and allowing owners to maintain firmer expectations.

Activity remains selective, but the recent flow of fixtures suggests that the underlying market is stronger than the headline volume might imply. The coming week should reveal whether this momentum is sufficient to generate further rate improvement or whether the market settles into its present range.

Handysize remained quieter. Limited fresh enquiry prompted several vessels to consider ballasting towards East Coast South America, where returns remain sufficiently attractive to justify the repositioning. That movement has nevertheless helped clear the local prompt list, leaving fewer immediate candidates on the coast.

Period appetite remains a notable source of support, with several fixtures reportedly concluded in the high $teens. Spot activity is subdued, but a thinner prompt fleet combined with healthy period demand gives owners some protection against a sharper correction.

Continent — Firm Water, But the Tide May Be Turning

The Continent Ultramax market began quietly before gathering pace through the week. Tonnage availability has increased somewhat, although a significant part of the visible list remains operator-controlled or committed to Russia trades. Demand has held firm, particularly for the first half of October, where enquiry remains healthy and prompt dates have begun to attract pressure.

The market therefore remains well supported, with levels holding firm despite the gradual increase in available tonnage.

Handymax, however, has reached a more delicate point. After its strong run, the market appears to have found a temporary top, with additional tonnage entering and owners and charterers increasingly divided over price. Tight-cancelling cargoes have largely been covered, while West Mediterranean tonnage and some discounting into French grain have added competition.

Rates remain firm, but the balance is changing. A small correction is possible as the list builds, although fresh opportunities continue to emerge and make a sustained downside move far from certain. In a market such as this, the next cargo matters more than the last fixture.

Mediterranean & Black Sea — The ‘’Etesian’’  Wind Has Eased

The Mediterranean and Black Sea Ultramax market has moved from last week’s tightening phase into consolidation. As vessel supply has been replenished, spot and first-week October cargoes have begun to thin. West Mediterranean fixing levels have generally held flat, while East Mediterranean–Black Sea business has eased by a notch. Sentiment has consequently cooled without turning negative.

The Handymax market has been quieter still. West Mediterranean activity was almost absent, while Black Sea–East Mediterranean business remained limited. West Mediterranean found some support from the firmer Continental market and the attraction of East Coast South America employment, but East Mediterranean remained subdued.

Early-week fixtures held around the end-of-last-week levels before numbers began to soften on a couple of spot requirements. Charterers without an immediate need to cover appear content to wait for the tonnage list to build before committing. That behaviour is important: the market is not being sold down aggressively; rather, charterers are deliberately allowing time to work in their favour.

Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean & South Africa — Risk, Cargo and the Price of Distance

The Middle East Gulf, Indian Ocean and South Africa Ultramax/Supramax market is moving sideways, with the balance between cargo and risk increasingly important. High bunker prices and security concerns around Hormuz are keeping owners cautious, while cargo demand remains an uneven trickle. Middle East limestone and South African minerals continue to provide the principal support.

In the Middle East Gulf itself, sentiment remains uncertain following recent attacks, and rates are unattractive when measured against the associated risk. An influx of Chinese tonnage has nevertheless reduced immediate demand requirements inside the Gulf. Away from the chokepoint, Oman limestone and gypsum rounds to West Coast India on Ultramax are holding steady at mid-teens DOP West Coast India.

West Coast India has been relatively slow, with salt the principal source of demand. Tonnage is close to open spot and some owners are considering ballasting south towards a relatively flat South African market.

East India is producing a different pattern, with owners concentrating on coastal employment and Indonesian coal rounds. Ultramax rates have slipped from earlier high ideas into the low $20,000s. In the Bay of Bengal, weaker fresh cargo demand from Southeast Asia is undermining sentiment, with older Supramaxes increasingly targeting the mid-teens DOP for East Coast India–China iron ore trips.

South Africa remains the exception. First-half October demand is strong and is being reinforced by a firm East Coast South America market. Charterers are meeting substantial resistance and are paying significant premiums as a result. Ultramax fronthauls are fixing around $19,500 DOP West Coast India, with some fixtures reaching $26,600 daily plus a $265,000 ballast bonus on an APS basis. Supramaxes are covering East Africa–Far East employment in the mid to high $teens.

The Handysize market began quietly before demand improved progressively. Red Sea business has been active, including a couple of tenders, while Indian steel cargoes have added support in the Indian Ocean. The tonnage list has thinned towards the end of the week, helping rates remain firm and leaving the overall market balanced with a slightly firmer tone.

Volatile bunker prices remain a variable to watch closely. In the Indian Ocean, the economics of employment can change quickly when fuel and risk move in the same direction.

Far East & Southeast Asia — Southern Strength, Northern Patience

The Pacific Ultramax market remained firm, although activity in both North and South Pacific slowed towards the end of the week as China approached its Golden Week holiday. Fresh North Pacific and backhaul enquiry became limited, with much of the earlier business already covered.

Owners nevertheless continued to defend $22,000–$24,000 for North Pacific rounds against charterers’ ideas in the low $20,000s. A 61,000-dwt open Weihai was heard fixed at $21,000 for a North Pacific–Chittagong trip with redelivery Singapore, while a 58,000-dwt open Japan fixed at $24,000 DOP via Vietnam to West Coast India with bagged cargo.

Period interest provided another layer of support. A 63,000-dwt open Zhoushan fixed at $21,250 for 5–7 months, while a 60,000-dwt open North China vessel was reportedly on subjects at $20,500 for one year. The market may be quieter during the holiday, but the level of period enquiry suggests that owners are not yet reading the present slowdown as a structural change.

The southern basin was stronger. Bangladesh, India and Indonesian coal demand continued to compete for relatively limited tonnage, while Vietnam–Bangladesh clinker business produced some of the week’s strongest numbers. A 61,000-dwt fixed at $33,000 DOP Campha and a 55,000-dwt at $30,000. A 56,000-dwt open Tieshan fixed at $29,000 for steel to West Coast India.

Indonesian coal remained firm, with a 64,000-dwt open Merak fixing at $26,000 DOP and another 63,000-dwt open Philippines at $25,000. Australian rounds also strengthened, with a 64,000-dwt open Koh Sichang on subjects at $23,500 DOP, broadly consistent with owners’ $23,000–$24,000 ideas. By the end of the week, however, most available orders appeared to have been covered.

Period business remained active, generally around $23,000–$24,500 for 4–7 months, while a 58,000-dwt open Yangpu fixed at $19,100 for 5–7 months, principally with the first leg involving backhaul employment. Southern Asia therefore retains the stronger momentum, although Golden Week should bring a temporary reduction in activity.

The Far East Handysize market tells a different story. Golden Week has suppressed Chinese activity, with cargoes largely looking towards mid-October dates and charterers increasingly expecting softer conditions. Owners continue to test $18,000–$19,000 DOP for trips south on larger Handies, but ample vessel supply should restrict any meaningful upside until at least after the holiday.

West Coast India has also softened. Owners are maintaining ideas around the mid-$20,000s for individual trips, while charterers are concentrating on the high $teens to low $20,000s. With the last done on a large Handy at $21,500 DOP to West Coast India, realistic levels are increasingly gravitating towards the low $20,000s to very high $teens, depending on vessel position. Trips via redelivery Penang/Singapore have become less prominent as the week progressed.

The backhaul market remains subdued. Larger Handies are generally quoting $20,000–$23,000, while last-done levels are in the $18,000–$19,000 range for trips to the Mediterranean and the mid to mid-high $teens for trips to the US Gulf. With fresh enquiry still limited, the near-term market is likely to remain around the mid-high $teens, with little immediate room for improvement.

Period business is similarly quiet. Modern, eco-efficient larger Handies continue to attract some interest, but charterers remain selective. Short-period business of approximately 5–7 months is generally being discussed around $18,000–$19,000 for larger Handies. Unless enquiry improves, owners may face increasing resistance, leaving the period market vulnerable to further softening if available tonnage continues to outrun demand.

Southeast Asia & Australia Handysize — A Narrow but Defensible Floor

The smaller Handy Pacific round voyage market is currently in the $14,000s, with owners aiming for the $15,000s. Larger Handies trading Australian round voyages on a Singapore basis are around $17,000.

A couple of palm-kernel expeller and cement stems are providing useful support, while legs and short-period levels are expected to remain firm. Supply is also restrained by the relatively limited availability of larger Handy loggers. It is not a market offering spectacular upside, but the floor remains commercially defensible.

Period Market — Spot Strength Has Yet to Become Forward Conviction

The Atlantic Ultramax period market has been largely flat. Rates remain elevated, but there has been little fresh momentum. Short- to medium-period business remains in the mid to high $20,000s for sub-specification delivery, while Q1 business continues to trade very close to Cal 27.

Atlantic Handysize period business is equally steady. The spot market has generally continued to move higher, but that strength has yet to translate meaningfully into longer-term pricing. Owners have shown limited appetite to raise one-year ideas, while charterers remain reluctant to chase firm spot levels into longer cover.

That divergence is worth watching. When spot strengthens but period rates remain restrained, the market is effectively saying that participants are prepared to pay for immediate scarcity but are not yet convinced that the tightness will persist. For owners, that argues for disciplined optionality rather than simply extending duration at any price.

Forward View — October Will Be Won in the Prompt Window

The market enters October with a constructive but highly selective profile. The Atlantic remains the principal source of support, although the US Gulf and Continent are showing signs that additional tonnage could limit further upside. South Atlantic fundamentals remain healthier in North Brazil than in the South, while South Africa continues to command significant premiums where cargo demand meets constrained positioning.

Asia is more bifurcated. Southern Ultramax remains supported by coal, clinker, steel and Australian business, while the North Pacific and Far East Handy markets are entering a holiday-induced period of caution. The Golden Week pause should not be mistaken for a structural deterioration, but it will give charterers greater room to test owners’ resolve.

The central commercial point is therefore straightforward: the market is not uniformly rising, but neither is it uniformly softening; it is rewarding owners who control prompt tonnage and punishing those who misjudge positioning.

That is likely to remain the defining feature of the next few weeks. Where available supply continues to disappear faster than it is replenished, owners should retain negotiating leverage. Where the list is visibly rebuilding, charterers will regain the initiative quickly. The difference between the two outcomes may be measured not in months, but in days.

For commercial operators, October should therefore be approached less as a question of where the market “is” and more as a question of where the next workable cargo-to-tonnage balance will emerge. In a fragmented market, that is where value is created.

The strongest strategy remains one of selective conviction: protect exposure where prompt supply is genuinely constrained, remain disciplined where lists are building, and use ballast economics, cargo optionality and period cover as commercial tools rather than as afterthoughts.

The market does not need a rising tide to create opportunity. It only needs the right ship in the right place at the right moment.

Legal Disclaimer:

This article  is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources and reasonable assessments at the time of writing which may changed without prior notice , believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Neither the author nor any affiliated parties accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage arising from the use of or reliance on the content of this article. The analysis is provided strictly for informational and commentary purposes and should not be interpreted as guidance for any commercial or investment decisions.Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.