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The Venezuelan crude trade has moved

The Venezuelan crude trade has moved from being a relatively narrow and politically constrained flow into one of the most important incremental demand drivers for the crude tanker market in the first half of 2026. Based on Signal Ocean data, during H1 2025, Venezuelan crude exports stood at 13.25 million mt across 106 cargoes, with China the leading destination at 4.96 million mt and the United States following at 4.15 million mt. In H1 2026, volumes more than doubled to 28.25 million mt, while cargo count increased to 273. More importantly, the destination mix changed materially, with the United States taking the leading position at 12.19 million mt, equal to around 43% of total exports, while India emerged as the second largest receiver with 5.07 million mt.

This expansion has not only added barrels to the market, it has also changed the way tonnage is being employed. In H1 2025, the trade was heavily concentrated on VLCCs, which carried 56.2% of Venezuelan crude, followed by Aframaxes at 32.8%. By H1 2026, the picture had become far more balanced. Aframaxes became the main workhorse of the trade, carrying 10.16 million mt, or 36.0% of total volumes, followed by Suezmaxes with 9.06 million mt, or 32.1%, and VLCCs with 8.34 million mt, or 29.5%. This diversification is particularly important because it points to higher utilisation across more vessel classes rather than a simple increase in long-haul VLCC employment.

The monthly comparison is even more revealing. In June 2025, Venezuela exported just 1.90 million mt across 8 cargoes, all moved on VLCCs. In June 2026, exports reached 6.25 million mt across 60 cargoes, with Aframaxes accounting for 35.7%, VLCCs for 34.5% and Suezmaxes for 22.7%. In other words, the trade has shifted from a concentrated, low-frequency VLCC programme into a broader and more active loading pattern, creating more fixture opportunities and supporting vessel demand in the Atlantic basin.

This is also reflected in tanker earnings. Based on Baltic TCE data from 1 January 2026 up to 27 February 2026, VLCCs averaged about USD 101k/day, compared with around USD 41k/day in H1 2025, an increase of approximately 246%. Suezmaxes averaged about USD 93k/day, up from USD 40k/day, while Aframaxes averaged about USD 73k/day, compared with USD 33k/day last year. We have chosen the period January – February 2026 as in that period the Venezuelan sanctions started to lift and before the Arabic Gulf tension begun. Despite the improvement in earnings that followed is clearly not explained by Venezuela alone, as the wider crude market has also been significant influenced by geopolitical risks, however, the Venezuelan story fits very well into the broader market narrative: more cargoes, more destinations, and more vessel classes being absorbed.

For owners, the key takeaway is that Venezuela has become a more meaningful source of tanker employment in 2026, especially for Aframax and Suezmax tonnage. For charterers and financiers, the development is equally important, as it demonstrates how changes in sanctions policy can rapidly reshape global crude trade flows. The easing of U.S. sanctions has effectively transformed Venezuelan crude from a cargo largely dependent on the shadow fleet into one increasingly traded within the mainstream tanker market. This transition has allowed conventional owners, charterers and oil majors to re-enter the trade, broadening the pool of available participants and generating demand across multiple vessel classes. Combined with the substantial increase in export volumes and the diversification of destinations, the result is a market where tanker utilisation is supported not only by geopolitical disruptions and longer trading patterns, but also by the reintegration of a previously isolated crude stream into the global shipping market.

S&P Activity:

Dry:

Activity this week was spread across all dry bulk sectors, with notable transactions from Capesize down to Handysize. On the Capesize sector, Chinese buyers acquired the Scrubber fitted "Lady Deena" - 183K/2020 JMU for region USD 70 mills basis delivery in November-December. Moving down the sizes, the Kamsarmax "Etron" - 81K/2016 Jiangsu Jinling was sold to Agricore for USD 27 mills. In the Supramax sector, the "Unity Maria" - 56K/2012 HMD changed hands for USD 16.5 mills, while the "Dato Lucky" - 57K/2011 Taizhou Kouan was sold for USD 13.5 mills basis delivery with surveys passed. Chinese buyers acquired the "VW Trust" - 52K/2002 Tsuneishi for USD 8 mills. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the semi-boxed "Atlantic Star" - 37K/2018 Oshima found new owners for USD 26 mills basis delivery in December 2026. Last but not least, the semi-boxed "Darya Krishna" - 35K/2016 Namura was sold for region/excess USD 20 mills.

Tanker:

The tanker sale and purchase market remained relatively quiet this week, with only four reported transactions. On the VLCC sector, the "C. Innovator" - 314K/2012 Dalian was sold for USD 52 mills with the vessel attached to a time charter to Mercuria at around USD 28,000/day until maximum October 2027. Moving down the sizes, the MR "Hansa Oslo" - 51K/2007 STX changed hands for USD 20 mills. Finally, in the MR sector, the sister vessels "Lanikai" - 46K/2002 STX and "Caroline" - 46K/2002 STX were sold en bloc to Chinese buyers for USD 19 mills each .

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.