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The renewed acceleration in tanker newbuilding activity has once again brought the question of oversupply

The renewed acceleration in tanker newbuilding activity has once again brought the question of oversupply to the forefront of market discussions, particularly as deliveries are set to rise sharply over the next two years. In 2026 and 2027 alone, around 342 and 368 tankers respectively are expected to be added to the active tanker fleet, marking the highest annual additions since 2009, when 406 vessels entered service at the peak of the last major supply cycle. At first glance, these figures inevitably raise concerns that the market may be heading towards another period of excessive fleet growth. However, a closer examination of delivery patterns, fleet age profiles and segment-specific dynamics suggests that the risk is more nuanced than the headline numbers imply.

A breakdown of tanker deliveries on a rolling four-year basis since 2008 shows that the 2025–2028 period will mark one of the strongest delivery phases of the past two decades across several core segments. MR2, Aframax/LR2 and Suezmax tankers are all set to record their highest four-year intake since the 2008–2011 cycle, highlighting a clear acceleration in newbuilding momentum. However, the scale of the upcoming inflow remains meaningfully below the peaks of the last super-cycle. MR2 deliveries in 2025–2028 are projected to be around 14% lower than the 2008–2011 highs, while Aframax/LR2 additions trail their historical peak by roughly 6%. Suezmax deliveries, on the other hand, are expected to broadly match their previous maximum levels, pointing to a more pronounced recovery in this segment. The VLCC sector follows with a lag, peaking in the 2026–2029 window, yet deliveries are forecast to remain materially below the 2019–2022 super-cycle, underlining that even in the largest crude carrier class, fleet growth is unlikely to revisit the excesses of the most recent expansion phase. Overall, while the upcoming delivery wave is clearly elevated by post-2012 standards, it still falls short of prior super-cycle extremes, suggesting that the real risk for the tanker fleet will depend less on headline orderbook growth and more on demand durability and the pace of scrapping in the years ahead. This assessment is further supported by the projected age profile of the tanker fleet in 2028, a year with limited shipyard availability, where incoming tonnage appears largely replacement-driven. In MR2, Aframax/LR2 and Suezmax sectors, the expected 0–5 year-old cohort, incorporating vessels delivered in 2024–2025 and those scheduled over the following two years, broadly matches or exceeds the 21+ year-old fleet, with replacement ratios of 106%, 100% and 110% respectively, even under the conservative assumption of zero scrapping. This indicates that the bulk of upcoming deliveries is set to offset ageing tonnage rather than add net capacity to the active fleet, reinforcing the view that the current newbuilding appetite does not pose a structural supply risk at least through 2028. By contrast, the VLCC segment stands out, with a replacement ratio of around 81%, suggesting that ageing capacity is not yet fully covered by scheduled additions and leaving room for further newbuilding orders without materially increasing oversupply risk.

In conclusion, the growing momentum in tanker newbuilding activity does not yet constitute a systemic danger for the tanker fleet as a whole. Up to 2028, fleet growth appears largely disciplined and replacement-driven. The real test will emerge beyond that horizon, particularly in the VLCC segment, where ordering decisions made over the next 12 to 24 months will be critical in defining whether balance is preserved or excess begins to build.

Dry:

Dry bulk S&P activity was led this week by a mix of larger tonnage and firm Handysize interest, with 13 transactions reported across the Capesize, Kamsarmax, Panamax, Ultramax and Handysize sectors. On the Newcastlemax segment, the "MAX WARRIOR" – 205K/2014 Qidong Daoda was sold to HMM for low USD 40's mills. In the Capesize sector, Chinese buyers acquired the "SMYRNA" – 177K/2008 Namura for USD 25.25 mills. Moving down to the Mini-Cape sector, Oldendorff-linked tonnage featured prominently, with the "PIA OLDENDORFF" – 115K/2013 New Century sold for USD 18.75 mills, while the slightly older "PETER OLDENDORFF" – 115K/2012 New Century changed hands for USD 17.5 mills. The Japanese-built coal carrier "JP CARETTA" – 88K/2008 Imabari was sold for USD 13 mills, while the coal carrier "ROYAL AWARD" – 88K/2007 Imabari found Chinese buyers for USD 11.5 mills. On the Kamsarmax sector, the sister vessels "ANGLO RED" and "ANGLO BARINTHUS" – both 82K/2013 Sainty, were committed for USD 17 mills each, on subject inspection basis. Finally, the Handysize sector remained active, with Greek buyers picking up the "DARYA TAPTI" – 36K/2015 Shikoku for high USD 18 mills. The Japanese-built sisters "AFRICAN DOVE" and "AFRICAN LARK" – both 34K/2014 Namura, were sold for USD 16.5 mills each, featuring logger and electronic M/E.

Tanker:

Activity remained firm this week with a total of 10 tanker transactions reported across the VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax/LR2 and MR segments. In the VLCC sector, Sinokor was notably active, acquiring the "EAGLE VARNA" – 299K/2013 Daewoo for USD 86.5 mills, as well as the scrubber fitted sisters "ILMA" and "INGRID" – both 314K/2012 HHI, each concluded at USD 89 mills. On the Suezmax sector, Greek buyers acquired the scrubber fitted "MARAN PYTHIA" – 158K/2009 HHI for USD 46 mills. Further down the sizes, Greek interests also acquired the coated Panamax "ATHIRI" – 74K/2010 SPP for USD 24.5 mills, while the older Japanese-built coated Panamax "CABO FROWARD" – 75K/2006 Sasebo changed hands for USD 12.5 mills, basis delivery in June 2026. In the MR segment, Asyad Shipping was linked to the purchase of the scrubber fitted "LIANYUNGANG WUZHOU WZ465" – 50K/2026 Lianyungang Wuzhou for USD 45 mills. Meanwhile, the "CLEAROCEAN MARAUDER" – 50K/2021 Samsung was sold for USD 42.5 mills. Finally, Greek buyers concluded an enbloc deal for the ice-class sisters "ELANDRA FJORD" and "ELANDRA BALTIC" – both 51K/2011 HMD, for a combined price of USD 49 mills enbloc.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.