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Dry Bulk Market Extends Losses Despite Mixed Segment Performance

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping  Commercial Director

and
Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive & Shipping Consultant

The dry bulk market continued its downward trajectory over the past week, recording overall losses of up to 7.2% compared to the previous week, despite mixed performance across vessel segments. Capesize and Handysize markets weakened, Panamax/Kamsarmax rates strengthened, while Ultramax earnings remained broadly stable.

More specifically, Capesize rates declined by 15.76% week-on-week, Kamsarmaxes posted gains of 8.38%, Ultramaxes (63,000 dwt) remained unchanged, and Handysizes fell by 2.86%. As a result, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropped by 121 points week-on-week, closing at 1,567 points on Friday, 16 January.

Capesize Market

In Asia, the Capesize market softened under the weight of increased vessel availability, despite strong activity from miners. Toward the end of the week, signs of stabilization and a modest recovery emerged, with market participants closely monitoring developments. The Australia–China (C5) route closed on Friday at USD 7.45 per tonne.

In the Atlantic, particularly in the South Atlantic, freight rates declined midweek amid weakening demand. Conditions stabilized toward the end of the week, with a slight improvement recorded on Friday. In the North Atlantic, sentiment remained weaker, with lower rates observed both for Asia-bound and transatlantic voyages. By Friday, Brazil–China (C3) rates stood at USD 19.56 per tonne, while earnings on the Europe–Asia route (C9) closed at USD 41.2K per day, and transatlantic round voyages (C8) at USD 22.34K per day.

Panamax / Kamsarmax Market

In the Atlantic, the week began with a balanced supply-demand environment. However, during the second half of the week, steady cargo flow combined with reduced vessel availability led to firmer rates across both northern and southern basins. Indicatively, East Coast South America (ECSA) to Far East voyages fixed at USD 18–20K per day (delivery Asia), Europe to Far East at USD 19–21K per day (delivery Europe), and transatlantic round voyages at USD 12–14K per day (delivery Gibraltar).

In Asia, the market moved at two speeds. The northern basin remained subdued due to limited demand, while the southern region benefited from tighter tonnage and a stronger Brazilian cargo program. Rates for Southeast Asia–Far East round voyages were reported at USD 9–11K per day (delivery Far East).

Ultramax Market

In Southeast Asia, the Ultramax market remained relatively quiet, with limited cargo volumes from Indonesia. In contrast, Australian activity was more pronounced, helping to maintain regional balance. Ultramax rates for Southeast Asia–Far East voyages were assessed at USD 8–9.5K per day.

Further north, in the Far East, market levels were largely unchanged, with limited new cargoes from the North Pacific. However, stronger demand was noted for westbound cargoes. Ultramax round voyages in the North Pacific (NOPAC) were fixed at USD 9.5–11K per day, Far East–India trades at USD 10–11.5K per day, and backhaul voyages to the Atlantic (BH) at USD 8–9.5K per day.

In the Arabian Gulf and West Coast India, rates showed minor fluctuations while maintaining an overall downward trend. Notably, forward outlooks for the coming months remain positive. Ultramax earnings for voyages to the Far East were reported at USD 12.5–14K per day (AG–WCI), for short AG–WCI trades at USD 11.5–13K per day, and for Atlantic-bound voyages at USD 9–10.5K per day.

In the Atlantic, particularly the US Gulf, the market exhibited firming trends on both transatlantic and Asia-bound routes, supported by limited forward tonnage availability. Ultramax rates reached USD 19–20.5K per day for transatlantic voyages and USD 21–22.5K per day for Far East destinations.

The ECSA region remained sluggish throughout most of the week due to subdued demand. Rates softened accordingly, with limited support coming from occasional Far East cargoes. Ultramax earnings from ECSA to Southeast Asia/China were reported at USD 22.5–24K per day, while transatlantic voyages (Med/Europe) fixed at USD 19.5–21K per day.

In Europe, market activity increased with a satisfactory volume of fixtures. While overall demand remained flat, scrap cargoes continued to dominate. Ultramax rates for local round voyages stood at USD 13.5–15K per day, scrap cargoes to the Mediterranean at USD 17.5–19K per day, and voyages to Asia at USD 16–17.5K per day. The Mediterranean benefited from stronger demand from the western basin, which absorbed a significant portion of available tonnage, tightening supply and supporting rates. Indicatively, Ultramax vessels fixed at USD 15.5–17K per day for Mediterranean–Asia voyages (delivery Canakkale), USD 7–8.5K per day for Atlantic-bound voyages, and USD 10.5–12K per day for intra-Mediterranean trades (excluding war risk areas).

Handysize Market

In Europe, the Handysize market attempted to regain footing following a difficult week. While cargoes were available, volumes were insufficient to provide meaningful rate support, resulting in a slight softening. Larger Handysize vessels achieved USD 9.5–11K per day for round voyages, USD 11–12.5K per day for scrap cargoes into the Mediterranean, and USD 6–7.5K per day for transatlantic trades.

The Mediterranean remained under pressure due to ample vessel supply in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, coupled with a lack of fresh cargoes. Rates for larger Handysize vessels (above 36,000 dwt) were reported at USD 6–7.5K per day for intra-Mediterranean voyages (delivery Canakkale), similar levels for Europe-bound voyages, USD 5.5–7K per day for Atlantic-bound trades, and USD 9.5–11K per day for Far East destinations.

In the US Gulf, the market was notably active, although vessel availability gradually increased. Given that most January cargoes have already been covered, market stabilization is anticipated. Larger Handysize vessels fixed at USD 14.5–16K per day for both transatlantic and Far East voyages.

In the ECSA region, the week began on a muted note. A lack of northbound cargoes prompted several vessels to reposition southwards. Toward the end of the week, demand improved slightly. Rates for transatlantic voyages (Europe/Mediterranean) were reported at USD 16–17.5K per day, while Far East voyages fixed at USD 17–18.5K per day.

In Asia, particularly in the northern basin, a concentration of available tonnage quickly absorbed limited demand, pushing rates lower. In the south, activity remained subdued, with some late-week Australian cargoes offering marginal support. Further west, in the Arabian Gulf and India, rates continued to decline in line with larger vessel segments. Larger Handysize vessels fixed at USD 7.5–9K per day for Far East and NOPAC round voyages, USD 11–12.5K per day for Southeast Asia–China trades, and USD 6.5–8K per day for West India–China voyages.

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This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.