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Capes Ignite a Broad Market Rally as Dry Bulk Sentiment Strengthens

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive / Commercial Director, TMC Shipping

The dry bulk market delivered an impressive weekly surge, powered primarily by a sharp rise in Capesize earnings and supported by steady gains across the smaller segments.

Capes jumped by 22.67%, far eclipsing the modest improvements seen in Kamsarmaxes, Ultramaxes and Handies, which rose by 1.23%, 0.65% and 0.85% respectively. By the week’s close, the Baltic Dry Index had climbed 285 points to reach 2,560—one of the season’s most notable weekly performances and a clear signal of renewed momentum as December approaches.

Capesize: Strong Fundamentals Reassert Market Leadership

Capesizes took command of the market, with both the Pacific and Atlantic basins displaying tightening fundamentals. In the Pacific, consistent activity from miners and major operators kept tonnage availability in check and sentiment firmly positive, allowing the C5 Australia–China route to close at $11.9 per ton. The Atlantic began the week cautiously but soon gained pace as tonnage lists thinned, particularly for transatlantic-to-Pacific employment. By week’s end, C3 Brazil–China settled at $25.1 per ton, the C9 Europe–Asia route reached $61,780 per day, and the C8 transatlantic round voyage stood at $43,750 per day. With the Atlantic tone steadily improving, the basin is increasingly seen as a potential catalyst for heightened December volatility.

Kamsarmax: Grain Flow Lifts the Atlantic While Asia Softens Slightly

Kamsarmax activity remained buoyant in the Atlantic, where heavy grain volumes from the U.S. East Coast and Gulf supported a firming trend. The South Atlantic followed suit on the back of balanced supply conditions. ECSA–Far East trades hovered in the $15,000–17,000 per day range, Europe–Asia voyages fixed around $24,500–26,500 per day, and transatlantic round voyages settled between $17,500 and $19,500 per day. The Pacific began the week with a tight tonnage list and solid Indonesian activity, but sentiment eased toward Friday as demand tapered. Regional fixtures on SE Asia–Far East routes concluded between $19,000 and $21,000 per day.

Ultramax / Supramax: Mixed but Firming Across Key Regions

Ultramaxes and Supramaxes experienced a generally supportive week, though momentum varied across basins. Southeast Asia benefited from continuous export flows, particularly on Indonesia–India and Australia routes, with rates in the $14,500–16,000 per day range. The Far East remained in a delicate balance amid limited NOPAC and westbound demand, even as period interest stayed conspicuously active; NOPAC round voyages ranged from $15,500 to $17,000 per day, Far East–India at $16,000–17,500 per day, and Far East–Atlantic at $14,500–16,000 per day. In the MEG and West Coast India, prompt availability was tight enough to push rates to $15,000–16,500 per day for Far East-bound cargoes and $12,000–13,500 per day for Atlantic-bound business. The US Gulf, despite early optimism, saw sluggish cargo flows that limited gains, with transatlantic round voyages fixing around $30,500–32,000 per day and USG–Asia at $30,000–31,500 per day. ECSA maintained steady upward momentum thanks to a balanced tonnage list and rising demand, with ECSA–Asia voyages concluding at $26,500–28,000 per day and ECSA–TA at $27,500–29,000 per day. In Europe and the Mediterranean, scrap cargoes kept Continental Europe stable, while the Med slipped on lacklustre Black Sea fundamentals; Continent round voyages closed at $19,000–20,500 per day, Continent–Asia at $24,500–26,000 per day and Med–Asia at $19,000–20,500 per day.

Handysize: Market Holds Steady, With ECSA Leading the Pack

Handysize markets remained stable overall, though regional dynamics varied. Continental Europe held firm thanks to tightening supply, with round voyages at $15,000–16,500 per day. The Mediterranean, however, was constrained by weak Black Sea and Eastern Med activity, keeping Med round voyages around $11,500–13,000 per day and Med–Asia at $15,500–17,000 per day. In the U.S. Gulf, pre-Thanksgiving fixing added a brief mid-week boost, pushing USG–TA to $20,000–21,500 per day and USG–Asia to $21,500–23,000 per day. The standout submarket was ECSA, where tightening tonnage and active demand supported steady increases; ECSA–TA fixed at $22,500–24,000 per day and ECSA–Asia at $19,500–21,000 per day. In Asia, oversupply in the north applied downward pressure, while the south and MEG/India regions enjoyed healthier cargo flow. NOPAC round voyages concluded at $10,000–11,500 per day, SE Asia–China at $13,500–15,000 per day, and WCI–China at $9,500–11,000 per day.

And so, as the Capesets take the spotlight and the broader market rallies behind them, dry bulk sentiment enters December with renewed confidence—proof once again that when the big ships move, the whole market feels the swell.

Legal Disclaimer: This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.