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“Calm Seas, Shifting Currents”

By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant - Chartering Executive

&  Commercial Director, TMC SHIPPING

 Market Bearings: Where We Stand and Where We’re Headed

As the global dry bulk market sails through a complex sea of regional disruptions and cyclical shifts, the Handy and Ultramax sectors continue to reveal where opportunity lies—and where caution is warranted.

This past week, market behavior was shaped not only by regional fundamentals but also by the ASBA conference in the U.S., temporarily quieting desks before midweek momentum brought new life to the chartering scene. From South America to Southeast Asia, patterns are emerging—and smart operators are already adjusting their sails.

Here's a strategic overview of this week's performance and next week’s likely headings.

Handysize – Holding the Line, Seeking the Wind

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)

The week opened under quiet skies as much of the industry turned its attention to the ASBA conference. But by midweek, the lull broke—particularly from the East Coast—sending rates on a modest upward trajectory. The wind appears to be picking up, with positive sentiment building for the week ahead.

East Coast South America (ECSA)

A slow departure from port, but as the week progressed, fresh stems revived activity and kept sentiment afloat. Provided the weather holds, we anticipate steady market behavior in the coming days.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE)

Owners in Northern Europe found firmer footing this week as demand gradually improved. This subtle but consistent pressure suggests owners may continue to firm their positions in the short term.

Mediterranean

The Western Med was buoyed by strong Atlantic and Continent-linked demand, keeping activity brisk and rates firm. Expect the Western basin to continue charting a positive course, though Eastern Med remains under watch.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)

Limited cargo flow and an oversupply of tonnage weighed on sentiment. Without fresh cargoes, the region is likely to remain under pressure—dead calm, for now.

Southeast Asia / Far East

A tale of two halves: The North held stable, while Southern routes—buoyed by Aussie demand—remained more active. As China’s Golden Week (from 1st October) approaches, expect a temporary slowdown in steam.

Ultramax – Powering Ahead with Purpose

US Gulf / US East Coast (USG/USEC)

Though ASBA slowed the start of the week, increased tonnage from the West Coast raised the stakes. Front-haul competition intensified, but transatlantic trips held steady. Expect firming for Atlantic-bound cargoes in the near term.

East Coast South America (ECSA)

Solid as a steel hull—demand remained strong throughout, with West Africa lending further support. The current looks favorable as we steer into next week.

Northern Europe (Continent/NWE)

Fixture activity may have dipped, but short tonnage lists and Baltic premiums for Asia-bound voyages kept the market buoyant. With supply tight, the short-term forecast remains positive.

Mediterranean

A midweek spike from Western Med and the Black Sea gave the region a jolt, though Eastern Med softened. Outlook for next week leans cautious unless new demand drops anchor.

South Africa

Strong pull from India combined with steady supply created a rate surge. With active tendering continuing, this region is sailing on favorable tides.

Middle East Gulf / India (MEG/India)

Port normalization post-monsoon is underway. While the Gulf saw a buildup in tonnage, West India remained active, keeping the region relatively balanced. Expect improving dynamics next week as logistical knots loosen.

Southeast Asia / Far East

Muted at the outset, but regained balance midweek with cargoes from both ends of SE Asia. Stakeholders are now eyeing October programs. Neutral sentiment prevails until Golden Week clears.

 Navigational Outlook – Reading the Winds Ahead

In a shipping market that never stands still, agility is everything. This week’s developments offer a navigational chart for what’s next: firming in the Atlantic, steadiness in Europe and South America, and potential headwinds in Asia due to holidays and oversupply.

Understanding the rhythm of these shifts—before they become headlines—is the mark of real mastery at sea. Those who can read both the charts and the clouds will steer ahead of the fleet.

If you require a more detailed breakdown or tailored commercial strategy, my lines are always open.

Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.