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Israel’s lightning-fast airstrike on 13 June yanked the Iran-Israel standoff out of proxy shadows

Israel’s lightning-fast airstrike on 13 June yanked the Iran-Israel standoff out of proxy shadows and into open conflict, instantly repricing every barrel, cubic metre and tonne-mile linked to the Gulf. Brent spiked almost 10 % to USD 76/bbl intraday, yet the louder signal came from freight and insurance: Hormuz is technically open, but charterers now behave as though its 21-nautical-mile throat were half shut.

War-risk premia tell the story. A prompt Ras Tanura–Ningbo VLCC that cost USD 0.25/bbl to insure on Thursday was quoted at USD 0.70-0.80/bbl on Friday, with 96-hour cancellation clauses suddenly standard. TD3C July liftings were bid at WS 65—eight points higher overnight—while an LR2 AG-UKC cargo now carries an extra USD 0.6 m for a Cape-of-Good-Hope option. Supertanker owners insist on partial freight pre-payments, and several July fixtures have already been repriced mid-voyage as margin calls outrun spot rates.

Gas exposure is even starker. Every molecule of Qatar’s LNG—18 % of global supply—and the UAE’s growing volumes still passes Hormuz. China relies on those streams for 26.9 mt a year, one cargo in four received. Should flows be impeded, Pacific buyers will raid the Atlantic basin, dragging the Japan-Korea Marker—already near USD 12.8/MMBtu—into the mid-teens. Forward MEG-Japan LNG hire has widened to roughly USD 110 000/day as charterers demand modern dual-fuelers capable of an East-Africa swing.

Physical infrastructure remains intact—Iran says pipelines “operate normally”, and satellites show no abnormal flaring at Kharg—yet markets discount the future. House modelling indicates that a two-week closure would strip about 6 mbd of crude and products from the system and draw OECD stocks below the five-year mean inside six weeks, a backdrop that could pull Brent toward the mid-USD 90s and keep freight bid along the crude, product and gas curves.

Stress is spreading well beyond the Gulf. Mitsui O.S.K. has issued fleet-wide safety alerts, and UKMTO warns of fast-boat activity plus drones that could again menace the Red Sea lanes. Each added layer of caution lengthens voyages, traps ships in queues and tightens effective supply, boosting not only VLCCs and LR2s but also MR carriers scrambling to restitch disrupted routes.

Tehran cannot close Hormuz without crippling itself: the new Jask outlet east of the strait has loaded under 300 000 bpd and ran for only a month last year, while almost all of Iran’s 1.7-1.8 mbpd of exports—chiefly to China—still sail from Kharg. A total blockade would spike prices, alienate neighbours, invite U.S. intervention and expose Iranian assets; negotiation, not closure, remains the rational course.

Investors are therefore hedging both ways. Brisk two-way interest in 15-year-plus Aframaxes is reported, as owners price a call on sanctions-tolerant hulls should Western fleets withdraw. Yet that option value is capped by an awkward truth: spare capacity able to cushion an Iranian outage sits in Saudi, Kuwaiti and Emirati terminals within the same missile radius. Until diplomacy in Muscat shows visible progress, the market will keep trading the tail—oil oscillating in a USD 70-90 band, the JKM benchmark hovering around USD 13-15, and tanker earnings surfing volatility that rewards modern fuel-flexible ships while granting veteran tonnage an unexpected lease of life.

Sale and Purchase

Dry:

In dry bulk, activity spanned the full-size range this week, with eight sales reported from Capesize down to Handysize. On the Capesize sector, the scrubber-fitted “Partagas” – 173K/2004 SWS was sold for excess USD 13.5 mills to undisclosed buyers.
Vietnamese interests acquired the scrubber-fitted Post-Panamax “Baby Cassiopeia” – 111K/2012 Mitsui for USD 19 mills. In the Kamsarmax segment, Qatari buyers picked up the scrubber-fitted “Bright Pegasus” – 82K/2013 Tsuneishi Zhoushan for USD 17.6 mills. The Panamax “Selina” – 76K/2010 Jiangnan changed hands for USD 11.8 mills, with SS/DD freshly passed. The Electronic M/E Ultramax “Bulk Aquila” – 67K/2014 Mitsui was sold for excess USD 22 mills, while on the Supramax sector, the “Marigoula” – 58K/2013 Yangzhou Dayang was sold for USD 13.5 mills to undisclosed interests. Finally, on the Handysize sector, the OHBS “NY Trader III” – 39K/2016 Jiangmen Nanyang changed hands for USD 17 mills, while the “Amira Sara” – 28K/2014 Imabari was sold for high USD 11 mills.

Wet:

Tanker S&P activity focused on the MR and chemical segments this week, with nine transactions reported across a broad dwt spread. The LR2 “Casper” - 108K/2010 Hudong Zhonghua has reportedly sold for region USD 34-35 mills basis surveys passed. The Japanese-built MR “Manta Galatasara” – 50K/2010 Onomichi has been sold to Greek buyers for about USD 17 mills, with SS/DD due shortly. The sisters “UOG Constantine” and “UOG Despina V” – 50K/2010 SLS were sold enbloc for USD 33.7 mills, while the Japanese-built “UOG Phoenix” – 47K/2010 Onomichi, achieved USD 17.5 mills. The MR1 “Osaka” – 38K/2008 HMD was sold for USD 14.8 mills to Middle Eastern buyers. Finally, on the Chemical tanker, the StSt “Birdie Trader” – 20K/2016 Usuki was sold for USD 28.5 mills to Chinese buyers, while the Ice Class 1C “Lessow Swan” – 7K/2008 ICDAS Celik found new owners for USD 9 mills.

Xclusiv Shipbrokers Inc.