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Last updateΔευ, 01 Ιουλ 2024 7am

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Dry bulk cargo market calm ahead of Chinese New Year

bulk ships 000

Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis
Commercial Director TMC MARITIME CO.

Dr. Fotios-Evangelos Karlis
Maritime Executive and Consultant

The dry bulk cargo market lost ground with losses recorded in all sizes, but with the biggest losses in Panamaxes and smaller losses in other sizes compared to the previous week. More specifically, Capes fell by 4.92%, Kamsarmaxes -14.85%, Supramaxes -2.25% and Handies -1.9%, compared to the previous week. Thus, the BDI rose by only 15 credits (compared to the previous week) and closed at 1407 credits on Friday, February 2.
Let's see, in more detail, how the dry bulk cargo market by vessel’s size moved last week, starting with CAPEs. In Asia, the week started marginally lower due to a lack of coal cargoes from Indonesia and the operational problems of several ports in northern China. During the week the flow of cargo improved. Index levels on the Australia-China route (C5) closed on Friday at $8.48/tn.
In the Atlantic Basin the market showed a satisfactory volume of cargoes mainly for loadings in mid-February. Towards the end of the week shipments to Asia were reduced from both Brazil and West Africa. Indexes on Friday for trips from Brazil to China reached up to $22.15/tn (for route C3), while rates from Continent to Asia closed at $40.5K/d (for route C9 ) and Transatlantic round trips at $20.79K/day (for route C8).
Regarding Kamsarmaxes, the Atlantic continued the decline that ended the previous week, as the cargo list for both transatlantic and Asian trips was limited. It is worth noting that in Brazil we saw more bookings at the end of the week but at lower levels. For example, the rates for the trips from the E. Coast S. America (ECSA) to the Far East reached up to $12.5-14.5K/day (Asia delivery), Continent to Asia at $21.5-23.5K/day (Continent delivery) and Transatlantic round trips at $12-14K/day (Gibraltar delivery).
On the other hand, Asia started the week with more activity, but as we approach the Chinese New Year, it showed a slowdown. In general, calm prevailed in the North Pacific, Australia and Indonesia. Indonesia-Far East round trip rates ranged between $8-10K/day (Far East delivery).
For Supramaxes-Ultramaxes, in Southeast Asia the market has come under pressure due to an oversupply of vessels and limited options for shipowners. SMXs rates for travel between S. E. Asia and the Far East went to 11.5-13K/day. Further north, in the Far East, the market declined significantly as most charterers are in a festive mood. Nevertheless there was interest in period charters. SMXs round trip NOPAC rates ranged between $7.5-9K/day, W. C. India round trips $5-6.5K/day and Atlantic (BH) round trips $6-7; 5K/day.
In the Middle East Gulf and West C. India the market advanced positively despite the absence of the previous week's activity. SMXs rates for Far East trips ranged between $18-19.5K/day (from Middle East Gulf (MEG) – West C. India (WCI)), for short-haul trips between Middle East Gulf – West C. India at $16-17.5 K/day and trips to the Atlantic at $ 6-7.5 K/day.
In the Atlantic Basin and especially the US Gulf showed some signs of recovery as there were more cargoes to Asia and fewer vessels available. SMX rates for Transatlantic trips remained at $19.5-21K/day and to Asia at $24-25.5K/day. The ECSA area moved low despite the fact that supplied capacity was tight. The absence of new loads in all directions left no room for improvement. The rates of SMXs for trips to N.A. Asia-China moved to $26.5-28K/day and for Transatlantic trips (Mediterranean/Continent) to $18.5-20K/day.
Continent showed signs of fatigue as the cargo list was reduced resulting in a concentration of capacity and pressure on rates. SMX rates for round-trip local trips moved to $17-18.5K/day, for trips with SCRAP cargoes to the Mediterranean at $16.5-18K/day and to Asia at $23.5-25K/ day. The Mediterranean maintained its momentum thanks to the good post-Chinese New Year climate. In terms of demand and supply, no particular changes were noted. Indicatively, it is reported that an SMX for a Mediterranean to Asia trip closed at $19-20.5K/day (Canakkale delivery), to the other side of the Atlantic Basin at $10.5-12K/day and within the Mediterranean at $ 11.5-13 K/day (outside war zones).
In the Handies market, in Continent the market continued to move upwards with several new cargoes of fertilizers from the Baltic. Rates for the largest vessels in the class, for round trips reached up to $13-14.5K/day, to the Mediterranean with Scrap cargoes at $13-14.5K/day and for Transatlantic trips at $10.5-12K /day.
The Mediterranean advanced positively as the Black Sea enriched demand with more cargoes. So on most routes we saw five-figure rates. Larger vessel rates (over 36K tonnes DWT) for intra-Med trips moved to $10-11.5K/day (delivery at Canakkale), to Continent at $10-11.5K/day (delivery to Canakkale), to the other side of the Atlantic at $8-9.5K/day (delivery to Canakkale) and to Asia at $17-18.5K/day.
On the other side of the Atlantic Basin, in the American Gulf the market presented a better picture compared to the previous week as there was an increase in cargoes. However, the high concentration of available vessels continues to cause concern. Indicatively, the rates of the largest vessels in the class for trips to the other side of the Atlantic Basin ranged between $12.5-14K/day and to Asia at $17-18.5K/day.
The East Coast of South America (ECSA) region started the week with several new cargoes, but then rates slowed. However, since loads appear for the second half of the month, optimism prevails. Thus, the charterers of larger vessels from the ECSA area for Transatlantic trips (Continent – Mediterranean) moved to $14-15.5K/day and to Asia at $20-21.5K/day.
In Asia, the market came under pressure despite the fact that Australia was strengthened, as the oversupply of vessels left no room for an increase in rates. Further west, in west C. India and the Middle East Gulf the market weakened after the situation in the Gulf of Aden limited shipowners' options. Far East and NOPAC round trip rates on larger vessels closed at $7.5-9K/day, from S. E. Asia to China at $9-10.5K/day and from the West C. India to China at $10.5-12K/day.

Disclaimer
This report and the information contained herein it is for general information only and does not constitute an investment advice

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