By Iakovos (Jack) Archontakis

Senior Maritime Strategy Consultant – Chartering Executive & TMC Shipping Commercial Director

The Ultramax and Handysize markets have entered the new trading cycle with the temperament of a shifting sea — not stormy, yet far from calm. Across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean basins, the week has delivered a mosaic of tightening pockets, soft underbellies, and fleeting rallies. For those steering commercial strategy, the ability to interpret these subtle movements is becoming as essential as a mariner’s instinct for reading the horizon.

Below is a comprehensive, region‑by‑region assessment, written with ’’metis’’ , and ‘’nautical precision’’  .

The South Atlantic Ultramax market has remained subdued, with enquiry thin and tonnage availability continuing to weigh on sentiment. Despite a slightly firmer feel mid‑week — driven by owners resisting softer numbers and a touch of fronthaul interest — the basin still lacks the decisive clearing of prompt ships needed for a meaningful rebound.

East Coast South America remains the most stable segment, with Continent/Mediterranean trips holding near USD 20,000. A modest uptick in Panamax soybean demand briefly lifted expectations, but the market still requires a more substantial tonnage clean‑out before any upward momentum can take hold.

 Handysize

Handies began the week cautiously, as the market attempted to re‑establish its footing after the holiday lull. Early bearishness gradually gave way to a more balanced tone as fresh demand emerged. Rates around USD 17,000–18,000 APS ECSA for Continent/Mediterranean runs suggest the segment may have reached its floor.

The mood is steady rather than bullish — a vessel riding a gentle swell rather than a rising tide — but the stabilisation is notable.

The US Gulf has staged a clear and decisive firming. Tight prompt availability forced charterers to pay up, with fronthaul fixtures climbing into the USD 22,000–23,000 range and transatlantic runs around USD 20,000–21,000.

As February cargoes — particularly petcoke to the East Mediterranean — entered the market, owners began quoting above last done. The January tonnage list has thinned dramatically, and even period interest has resurfaced, with a Mitsui 60 securing USD 19,000 for seven months.

The question now is not whether the market has found its floor — it clearly has — but how long this upward drift can continue.

 Handysize

Handies in the US Gulf have also stabilised. Most January stems are covered, easing immediate pressure and allowing rates to settle in the mid‑teens. Transatlantic runs around USD 15,000, West Coast trips near USD 18,000, and inter‑Caribs at USD 16,000 reflect a balanced market with no strong directional bias.

The vessel count has risen slightly, but demand from the Gulf and USEC continues to keep the list manageable.

The WCSA Ultramax market performed exactly as anticipated. With the remaining prompt tonnage cleared early in the week, charterers needing second‑half January ships were forced to pay USD 2,000–3,000 above last done.

However, this lift is expected to be short‑lived. With few outstanding 2H January requirements and lighter enquiry for early February, the market is poised to soften again as the calendar turns.

Handies on the WCSA also experienced the predicted rise, with rates climbing roughly USD 2,000 week‑on‑week. Demand for second‑half January remains active, and next week may see slightly firmer numbers for both backhaul and fronthaul.

Beyond that, the market is likely to stabilise or ease as February approaches.

The European market has shown a modest but meaningful tightening. Scrap cargoes remain the backbone of activity, with rates holding steady, while transatlantic business has improved to USD 11,000–12,000. Fertiliser flows from the Russian Baltic have helped absorb available tonnage, and fronthaul interest is stronger, though ideas remain in the mid‑to‑high teens.

The tone is cautiously firm — not a surge, but a steadying.

 Handysize

Handies in the region have been navigating a fragile equilibrium. Cargo flow has improved slightly, though not enough to push rates significantly higher. Scrap runs in the low USD 12,000s and grain trips at USD 14,000 from the Baltic to West Africa illustrate a market that is stable but still searching for direction.

Owners are quoting USD 12,000 to the West Med and USD 13,000 to WAFR, though charterers remain selective.

The West Med has been the more resilient of the two basins, absorbing East Med ballasters and gradually tightening. Fresh cargoes have helped maintain last‑done levels, though the East Med remains weighed down by long tonnage lists. Upside remains capped by oversupply.

 Handysize

Handies continue to face heavy pressure. East Med rates have slipped to USD 6,000–7,000 APS, while the West Med has fared slightly better with fixtures around USD 7,000–8,500 depending on route. A handful of fresh cargoes — including cement to the US and fertilisers to ECSA — have provided some relief, but the imbalance between supply and demand remains stark.

The MEG/Indian Ocean Ultramax market remains soft, with sideways or slightly downward movement. Arabian Gulf to East Coast India/Bangladesh runs are fixing in the mid‑teens, while East Coast India continues to suffer from limited iron ore exports. Owners are favouring Indonesian business over ballasting south.

 Handysize

Handies have shown slight improvement, with China trips now around USD 10,000 and Continent/Mediterranean runs in the low tens. The market feels marginally more stable, though oversupply remains a persistent drag.

 South Africa

The South African Ultramax market continues to erode, with ballasters from the Indian subcontinent continue to swell the list, pushing rates down further.

Fixtures around USD 14,000 + 140,000 APS underline the market’s fragility.

Activity has been selective, with Indonesian coal and clinker stems thin and Australian grain limited. Rates remain largely flat, with fixtures around USD 8,500–9,000 for regional runs. Western Australia has been the most active, driven by salt cargoes.

 Handysize

Handysize rates in Australia and Southeast Asia softened further as an oversupplied tonnage list continued to outweigh limited enquiry, with larger units plentiful for late January and smaller vessels comparatively scarce, narrowing the rate spread. Australian‑opening large Handies are fixing around USD 14,000–15,000/day for Singapore–Japan, while prompt Australian orders have absorbed some ballasters and kept a temporary floor near USD 10,000/day DOP Singapore; short‑period interest remains minimal, though fair value for logger‑type Handies sits near USD 11,000–12,000/day. Australia‑loading trips delivering Singapore are assessed at USD 7,500–8,000/day for 28k dwt, USD 8,750–9,250/day for 32k, and USD 10,000–10,500/day for 38k, with sentiment still bearish ahead of expected cargo flow improvements later in January and into February. The Australia RV market showed slightly more activity, yet charterers continued securing tonnage at competitive, largely unchanged levels, with coastal ships fixing around USD 14,500–15,500/day on 38k dwt; bids and offers remain far apart, keeping benchmark levels defensive. Korean steel and Chinese general cargoes are increasingly fixed on Supramaxes at rates comparable to larger Handies, while Southeast Asia mirrors the Far East with sideways trading, muted coastal activity, and mid‑teen discussions for larger Handies. A slight late‑week uptick emerged as some prompt ships cleared and a few end‑January/early‑February requirements surfaced, but these did not translate into firmer fixing levels, and owners continue to face resistance.

The Far East Ultramax market remains flat, with NOPAC rounds in the low teens and PG‑bound offers around USD 10,000. Backhaul demand from Vietnam has been a bright spot, though high vessel availability across CJK, Korea, and Japan continues to cap any upward movement.

Handies remain under pressure, with quick trips to Southeast Asia fixing at USD 6,000–8,500 depending on size. Backhaul rates around USD 10,000–11,000 reflect a market that may have found a floor but has yet to show signs of recovery.

Across basins, the Ultramax and Handysize markets are not in turmoil — they are in transition. The prevailing theme is recalibration rather than volatility. Seasonal flows, regional imbalances, and shifting vessel positioning are shaping a market where opportunity belongs to those who interpret the subtleties.

In such an environment, strategic insight becomes a competitive advantage. Understanding these currents — and anticipating the next — is what allows companies not merely to navigate the market, but to master it.

This report is provided solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment or commercial advice. The information herein is based on sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. Any actions taken based on this content are the sole responsibility of the reader.