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As we start to enter into the Christmas mood, by enjoying parties, and holidays, significant events to discuss are getting lesser. One of the most significant news of the past week however was China’s announcement that both imports and exports reduced in November, at their biggest pace since February 2020, with exports contracting 8.7% y-o-y, mainly because of weaker external demand and the worsening Covid outbreak that disrupted production and eliminated demand at home. The dry bulk market has remained almost stable, with the BDI increasing by 5% on a weekly basis. by closing the week at 1,683 points, up by 11% on a weekly basis. For the other segments, it was a stable week with the Panamax gaining only 3% and closing the week at 1,659 points, while the Supramax and the Handyzise closed the week slightly below (1% down) compared to the past week at 1,152 and 732 points respectively.

Further to our previous week’s analysis of the process of second-hand prices and the freight rates of the last 3 years, we now analyse, using the below graph, the bulk carrier second-hand price change from 3-year highs as well as from October 2021, when the average time charter rates touched levels not seen since 2008 in all dry bulk segments. It is notable that the average TCE rates since October’s highs have fallen as the 5 route T/C for Cape is about 85% lower, the 5 route T/C for Panamax is 63% down and the 10 route T/C for Supramax and 7 route T/C for Handysize are 68% and 64% lower respectively. Second-hand prices have reduced significantly from their 3-year highs (recorded during June and July 2022), with the 20-year- old and 15-year-old Handy depicting the biggest drop of 35% and 30% accordingly, while the 5-year-old Supramax second-hand prices have noted the lower drop of 14%. All the segments, in all age categories, have lost between 20% to 25%.

Despite the significant decrease in the dry bulk rates from October 2021, the second hand price fall has followed with a much less intensity than expected. Why is that? Well as dry bulk segment has made a significant rally through the last 3 years many owners have earned enough cash to make them more selective in sales and not eager to sell vessels at lower valuations. Market sentiment is that the re-opening of China within 2023 will stimulate seaborne bulk trade, driving the rates to higher levels than today.

For the oil market it was a turbulent week, with primarily the decision of OPEC+ to maintain their 2 million barrels per day output reduction policy, around 2% of global demand, from November till the end of 2023, but also with the first signs of implications of European’s embargo and price cap on Russian crude oil. Undoubtedly, the latter has caused “chaos” in the tanker market, producing a traffic jam of oil tankers, particularly in the straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles. More than 20 laden tankers, with the number decreasing during the weekend, are still blocked in Turkish waters as a result of the dispute between Turkish authorities and global marine insurers over insurance guarantees remains unresolved. The latest news is that the tanker logjam in and around the Bosporus is easing as the new week started but no one can be sure how it will develop in the next few days. Someone could expect that those parameters would be accompanied by an increase in oil prices. However, during the past week, both WTI and Brent have both reduced by around 11% to USD 71/ barrel and USD 76/ barrel respectively, hitting their lowest levels since December 2021. The TD6 route (Black Sea to Mediterranean) has increased by around 15% to USD 159K/day since 2nd December (before coming into force the EU’s ban on Russian oil).

Sale and Purchase:

Although one could expect a reduction in the second-hand buying appetite, due to the festivities that many parts of the world have started to enter, rumors of China’s fully reopening by mid-2023 has created a positive sentiment in the dry S&P activity. On the Post-Panamax sector, the BWTS fitted “TW Manila” - 93K/2012 YZJ was sold for region USD 19 mills. Moving down the size, the BWTS fitted Kamsarmax “Rich Rainforest” - 82K/2022 Yamic changed hands for USD 34.5 mills on BBHP basis to Japanese buyers, while the “Nord Pollux”- 82K/2016 Tsuneishi Cebu was sold for USD 25 mills basis forward delivery with cancelling May 2023. The OHBS BWTS fitted Supramax “Rio Choapa”- 51K/2012 Oshima found new owners for USD 16.5 mills. Finally, the BWTS fitted Handysize “Gant Grace” - 28K/2010 Imabari was sold for USD 12.5 mills.

The activity in the tanker market remains firm. The Scrubber fitted Suezmax “Ridgebury Mary Jane”- 150K/2008 Universal was sold for USD 38.5 mills. On the Aframax sector, the BWTS & Scrubber fitted “Southern Rouse” - 108K/2018 Tsuneishi found new owners for USD 62 mills, while the 10-year older “Gullit” - 109K/2008 SWS changed hands for USD 34 mills. The LR1 “Summit Africa” - 73K/2009 New Times was sold for region 24mills to Cypriot buyers. On the MR2 sector, Greek buyer acquired the BWTS fitted “Centennial Misumi”- 47K/2008 Onomichi for excess USD 21 mills. The MR1 “Luzern” - 38K/2007 GSI was sold for high USD 15 mills basis delivery in March, while German buyers acquired the BWTS fitted “Cape Bradley “- 40K/2004 HMD and the BWTS fitted “Cape Bacton” - 40K/2004 HMD for USD 15 mills each. Last but not least, the StSt BWTS fitted “Bochem Chennai” - 20K/2012 Kitanihon changed hands for USD 23.8 mills.